First and foremost, the scientific community DID run controlled experiments of pollution effects on Chesapeake Bay, and after a couple decades, abandoned the program. The projects took place at a massive facility at Mattapeake, MD where a 5-acre model of Chesapeake Bay was constructed inside immense steel buildings. The cost to taxpayers was staggering. The model was highly detailed, scaled exactly, experienced the exact tidal changes, water flows, etc...,etc...etc.... This facility employed a large staff of scientist, and at the time was touted as the savior of Chesapeake Bay. Scientists from at least four other states were invited to utilize the facility as well, and if I recall correctly, there was no charge to them for their usage.
Well, tens of thousands of tidal changes later, the introduction of tons of simulated pollutants, and thousands upon thousands of controlled experiments later, the project was dumped. It wasn't dumped because it didn't work - it was dumped because funding sources dried up. The reason they dried up? According to the rumor mill in Washington, DC the funding ceased because everyone was jumping on the study bandwagon, but no one was aboard the fix the problem wagon. Guess what - they're still not on that wagon today.
Now, lets look at my place, my palatial estate. I'm on a well, septic tank and field, my manicured front lawn consists mainly of crabgrass, johnson grass and other weeds. What the Hell, those weeds are just as green as Kentucky blue grass, but not nearly as fragile. There has NEVER been any fertilizer applied to my weed patch in the 45 years I've lived here and there will never be as long as I'm still kicking.
Until about 12 years ago, my driveway was crusher run, and at the end of the driveway was a cofferdam to prevent any run-off. When I became too old to remove the snow by hand, I had the driveway paved with blacktop and purchased an 8 HP snow blower. Then I planted tall red fescue at the end of the driveway to absorb any runoff from the blacktop.
Most of my 5.5 acres is still woodland, but the deer have eaten all the understory plants away, which results in higher than normal erosion into the stream that runs through the back end of my property. The deer are just one more example of MD-DNR not getting it right.
Now, your estimate of scientists not being right 75 percent of the time may be right, at least in the environmental areas of science. Could be higher. Keep in mind their environmental track record nationwide has been pretty abysmal, especially in this part of the world.
Lets get the record straight. We have the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), a massive bureaucracy that employs hundreds of thousands of people, many of them PHDs, and their only job is to safeguard our environment. Strike one!
In Maryland, we have the Maryland Department of Environment (MDE), which employs a huge number of staff and scientists. Their sole purpose is to protect and preserve the state's environment. Guess they need more money. The rivers, streams, creeks, and in some locations, groundwater supplies are all polluted. The bay, well, we've already discussed that. Air pollution in Maryland is ranked among the highest in the nation, and lots of "Code Red" days, which mean you shouldn't allow the kids to go outdoors and play because the air pollution is at dangerous levels. Same holds true for seniors, people with heart and lung problems, etc... So much for going outside for a breath of fresh air. Yep, they're doing a real, bang-up job at MDE.
We have the Maryland Department of Natural Resources, a massive bureaucracy that employs thousands of people, many of them scientists. Their sole purpose is to protect, preserve and enhance the natural resources of Maryland for all the state's citizens. They refer to this now as resource management. To date they've managed to wipe out: Oysters, soft shell clams, hard shell clams, striped bass, bluefish, weakfish, white perch, yellow perch, speckled trout, Atlantic menhaden, Atlantic croaker, blue crab, puffer-fish, American eel, American shad, hickory shad, blueback herring, and many, many more piscatorial species. They did this with the approval of scientists from the EPA, Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission, National Marine Fisheries Service, and a dozen lesser known state and federal agencies. Do you think they just might have done a little better? These are individuals that have degrees from major universities throughout the nation, degrees in fisheries and wildlife management, highly educated, some with PHDs. Hell, we even subsidized their educations with our tax dollars. Turns out they're real good at studying things, but they just need to work on fixin' things.
If you want to rely on the scientific community to fix the planet's environment, that's up to you. Me, I don't have 200 years to see if the 25 percent or less that get it right and finally manage to fix things. I just did a controlled experiment, looked at their past record, came to the conclusion that the chances of a group of scientist solving the bay's woes were slim to none. I put my money on the zebra mussels. And, if they arrive next year, and I manage to live another decade, I just may get to see the bay as clean and clear as it was in 1962, a time when I SCUBA dived for oysters at the old span of the Chesapeake Bay Bridge. Back then, we had 20-foot underwater visibility in late September, when the oyster season opened.
Better hope your doctors and surgeons are right more than 25 percent of the time - yeah, they're scientists as well.
Gary