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Old 05-13-2013
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Weather Forecasts (Chesapeake in this case)

Good morning!

I am taking the boat out of Herrington Harbour North this afternoon and am a little bit perplexed by the forecast(s). I'm wondering if anyone could shed some light on this, as I always try to keep an eye on the weather.

- NWS says there is a small craft advisory in effect through late tonight from Sandy Point to North Beach. To my recollection, an SMA is triggered between 22-33 knot winds.

For this afternoon:

- Weather.com for Deale, MD, says 11-13 mph (9-11 knots) winds
- Windguru says 8-7 knots/gusting 11-13 knots (GFS), and 10-12 knots/gusting 13-14 knots (NAM). HRWe simply says 12-16 knots.
- Passageweather.com indicates 10 knots, dying off to 5 knots by 5pm.

As you can see, there is a good degree of contradiction here. Which model should I trust?

Also, given the circumstances, would you go out with a reef on a 30' O'Day 302 or just go full canvas?

Thanks for any insight!

Nico

Last edited by EuroboyDC; 05-13-2013 at 10:57 AM.
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