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post #70 of Old 07-06-2013
Roger Long
Retired Naval Architect
Join Date: May 2012
Location: ON S/V Strider
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Re: 6 Americans, 1 Brit vanish at sea

Originally Posted by JonEisberg View Post
I believe that's a mistaken assumption...
Yes, and in four out of the five demonstrations of liferaft use by inflating just expired rafts for repack, the raft failed to inflate.

BTW, I'm getting kind of tired of the insistence by "Clueless" that we all recognize spontaneous disintegration of the old hull being the "most probable cause". All scenarios are possible and we won't know unless a survivor or definitive piece of debris shows up.

We can however, rank the probabilities even if roughly. That ranking will change with certain assumptions. If you assume that the EPIRB would work, as they usually do, things sudden and catastrophic move up the list.

Historically, speaking as one who has studied large sailing vessel losses fairly extensively over the years, structure failure due to normal wave action alone seldom happens suddenly enough in vessels of this size that a working EPIRB could not have been activated. It can't be ruled out but would be less likely in a vessel that has been maintained as well as it appears to have been than in many that have gone down slowly.

Even the infamous Raw Faith, built by a know nothing out of 8 foot pallet boards scabbed together with roofing tar, flooded and floated for hours gradually leaking until the crew were taken off in the chopper.

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