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post #105 of Old 07-10-2013
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Re: 6 Americans, 1 Brit vanish at sea

Originally Posted by Roger Long View Post
Yes, and in four out of the five demonstrations of liferaft use by inflating just expired rafts for repack, the raft failed to inflate.

BTW, I'm getting kind of tired of the insistence by "Clueless" that we all recognize spontaneous disintegration of the old hull being the "most probable cause". All scenarios are possible and we won't know unless a survivor or definitive piece of debris shows up.

We can however, rank the probabilities even if roughly. That ranking will change with certain assumptions. If you assume that the EPIRB would work, as they usually do, things sudden and catastrophic move up the list.

Historically, speaking as one who has studied large sailing vessel losses fairly extensively over the years, structure failure due to normal wave action alone seldom happens suddenly enough in vessels of this size that a working EPIRB could not have been activated. It can't be ruled out but would be less likely in a vessel that has been maintained as well as it appears to have been than in many that have gone down slowly.

Even the infamous Raw Faith, built by a know nothing out of 8 foot pallet boards scabbed together with roofing tar, flooded and floated for hours gradually leaking until the crew were taken off in the chopper.

Clueless a? Well mr. Architect i took my opinions from peer reviewed articles dealing with the surveying and degradement of wooden boats. I believe a qoute was something like, "even surveyors with decades of experience cannot be certain of a wooden vessels structual integrity."

So we have either a rouge wave or hull failure. Otherwise explain to me why no flotsam has been found, no epirb was activated, and no mayday call was sounded. Even if you had 3 minutes with seven people im betting one would act in a life saving manner. Another poker with decades of experience who has become jaded to the backed up fact presenting of a youth. I backed up my opinions with science and speculation. I was only wrong on the haul out because i did not double check what another poster stated.

Clueless. Good one longwinded.
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