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post #148 of Old 07-13-2013
smurphny
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Re: Sailboat perishes off Hatteras, USCG rescues crew

Quote:
Originally Posted by smackdaddy View Post
Bingo.

The double-edged sword is risk evaluation. There is not one of us here who haven't done something that we knew was risky. In most of those cases, we skated by - because we didn't have the cascade of many things going wrong at once. But, we also likely didn't think of all of those things that could have gone wrong either.

The bottom line is that there is no way to get it exactly right. It's simply an exercise of minimizing the risk as much as possible without going overboard and getting frozen at the dock while you're thinking through every possible scenario.

The one element that trumps everything else in the equation of sailing is the weather. I can't know when my engine is going to suddenly take a crap, or when my electrical system is going to die - but I can absolutely know, ALWAYS, that I don't want to be anywhere near a TS. There's plenty of evidence that forecasts are not always right.

That's my lesson here. Stay the hell away.
Now there it is in a nutshell. A fairly simple concept.

Alberg 35: With a philosophical flourish Cato throws himself upon his sword; I quietly take to the ship.
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