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Old 07-14-2013
JonEisberg JonEisberg is offline
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Re: Sailboat perishes off Hatteras, USCG rescues crew

Quote:
Originally Posted by TJC45 View Post
Jon, when first read of this incident I agreed with you 100%. And, i agree there was no reason to go outside, imo, for any reason. Buttttt! But then i read the captain's acct. Truthfully, while I still don't like some of the decisions that were made. My own conclusion is what we have here is a Domino Effect incident. Same as many aircraft crashes. In this case take away one Domino and we never hear about a boat named Adante 2. Storm takes it's projected path to the northwest, no rescue.
Again, THIS was the weather they sailed into... I seriously doubt had this massive system taken a slightly different track, the outcome would have been much different...



I can't even begin to imagine the thinking behind taking such a boat around Hatteras in January when that was the view of the Eastern seaboard from space... It's as unfathomable to me as Captain Walbridge's decision to sail the BOUNTY straight into the path of Hurricane Sandy... The only thing I can imagine, is that they were totally unaware of the bigger weather picture, and were solely relying on VHF forecasts for local waters as they progressed down the Bay, and then on down outside towards Hatteras...

Quote:
Originally Posted by TJC45 View Post
Captain's forecast of 6 to 8 holds we have no rescue. The boats engine doesn't hit the crapper we don't have a rescue. They are somehow able to shoot the inlet, (yeah i know)we don't have a rescue.

In hindsight these captains look downright incompetent. They sit right at the intersection of poor judgement and bad luck. Truth is, maybe they are incompetent. Key word here "maybe." AS i said in my previous post the line between pulling it off and getting away with it is razor thin. We have all been there! And i agree my take is generous. But lacking an NTSB level investigation we've got to draw our own conclusions.

As always, however, I think we make a mistake in looking at these sorts of events in terms of such specific "Dominoes", or decisions made... I think such a tendency to focus on the "of only they hadn't...", 'For Want of a Nail' type of analysis so often disguises the broader, more important lessons to be learned from these sorts of events...

Again, I'll refer to the RULE 62 tragedy... Most people would probably say the mistake made there was the skipper's attempt to enter that Bahamian cut, at night, in those conditions...

I, on the other hand, think it's more instructive to try to analyze the root causes that led up to the making of such a poor decision... In my opinion, the fate of RULE 62 was determined by decisions and choices the skipper made long before the boat ever left Hampon, perhaps years before that year's Caribbean 1500... The obvious lack of offshore experience on the part of both skipper and crew, for one - THAT is what led to such an unseamanlike maneuver being made, in the end...

The inexperience of these guys off Hatteras, their inability to appreciate the bigger picture of what they were getting into - the inherent illogic of the route, a lack of appreciation of how such large and complex lows can literally 'explode' in the vicinity of Hatteras, how irrevocably they would be committed to their route once rounding Diamond Shoals, and so on - is what led to the loss of this boat... Not any of the cascading failures that followed, they were almost inevitable, or at least should certainly not have been surprising...
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