Oracle will lose this for one reason and one reason only. They were not prepared. They did not get their boat up to speed until it was too late. They did not learn how to sail it until it was too late.
Sure it is great that ETNZ got to sail in more "competitions" than did OTUSA. But these guys are professionals. They have teams of analysts looking at the data. They had every opportunity to practice and know exactly how ENTZ sails in every single wind condition/angle. They had two boats to practice against eachother however they wanted. OTUSA just did not get it together fast enough. Had the competition started today, it would be a way different AC.
You'll notice that I was convinced earlier in this thread that this would be over very quickly. I've been surprised.
Jimmy sucked at the starts early on, as well as the tacks. He was aggressive, but always late. This has obviously changed. And that in itself is impressive...to gain so much so quickly.
It's also been interested watching Dean kind of crater. The pressure really seems to be knocking him. On the flip-side of the competition issue you guys are discussing, I think the fact that no one EVER really challenged NZ throughout the LVS is actually hurting them now. They're wilting instead of rising.
All that said, I think they'll win it. OR is just too far down. But it is definitely the best AC racing I've ever seen. Period.