Here's the forecast for Barnegat Bay tomorrow:
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE TO 20 NM OFFSHORE AND DELAWARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
612 PM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT...
DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT LATE THIS EVENING...THEN BECOMING W
5 TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT...BECOMING NW LATE. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT...
SUBSIDING TO 4 TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAINLY IN SE SWELL WITH A
DOMINANT PERIOD OF 9 SECONDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS.
.SAT...NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 TO 5 FT. MAINLY IN SE SWELL WITH A DOMINANT PERIOD OF
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMING NW 15 TO 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT.
.SUN...NW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 TO
So, why does the SCA extend into tomorrow (Saturday) afternoon? I understand the SCA today and tonight...20 kts with gusts to 25 makes sense to me. But after midnight it drops to 5-10. Is the SCA "just" because of the waves? I mean, don't get me wrong, 5-8' isn't something I'd be excited about heading out into, at least at this stage of the game, so I'm not trying to diminish that or anything. I'm just trying to understand the logic.
What I'm really trying to get a sense of is whether its worth packing up my family to head out tomorrow. If the winds are 5-10, or even 10-15, we should be OK. 15-20 after midnight should be fine, too. And on the bay, we shouldn't have the bigger waves that are predicted.