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post #186 of Old 11-04-2013
GeorgeB
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Location: Alameda, San Francisco Bay
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Re: Sailing, safety, & size

Help me out. What are the "Five Great Capes"? I count 1) Horn, 2) Hope.... Is three and four Southwest and Southeast Capes? Where is the fifth one?

Getting back to the original thesis, the only parameter brought up was one of length. And as the good little engineers we are, we did a constant scaling for the other dimensional data... and we held constant build quality and design. I don't understand why it is hard to draw a simple conclusion from only one variable in our design model.

I do risk analysis and first thought, "heck, with the modeling tools I have, I ought to be able work up a mathematical model on sailboat safety". Wrong. Too many variables and too many subjective assumptions. I am modifying my assumption that safety is a continuum. It is more like a multidimensional shape living within a Monte Carlo analysis. One of you other engineers can play with this one.

I love the associations and allegories. Soyuz v. the Shuttle? Love it. Ignoring the fact that the two solve entirely different design problems (One use vs. reusable, 60 day “return to space” window; aerodynamic v. ballistic etc. ) That is like trying to compare a rescue pod v. and aircraft carrier. Another analogy to use could be “what is safer, a Cessna 150 or a Boeing 777"

But please continue, I’m loving this food fight.

George B
2000 Catalina 34 MkII
Alameda, Ca.
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