You forgot that it is also exponentially related to the necessity of said item... the more you will need the item, the less likely it is to stay aboard.
Conversely, carrying a spare of an item will often insure that it will not be sacrificed to the sea gods... a good example... winch handles.. if you only have one aboard... the chance it will get dropped overboard is almost 100%. Because it is an absolute necessity, it is almost guaranteed to be lost. However, if you have two or three winch handles aboard... the chance that you lose one drops almost to zero.
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You know what the first rule of sailing is? ...Love. You can learn all the math in the 'verse, but you take
a boat to the sea you don't love, she'll shake you off just as sure as the turning of the worlds. Love keeps
her going when she oughta fall down, tells you she's hurting 'fore she keens. Makes her a home.
—Cpt. Mal Reynolds, Serenity (edited)
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Still—DON'T READ THAT POST AGAIN.