Quote:
Originally Posted by sailaway21
Actually CD, there are an awful lot of holes in the ground world-wide and the entire history of "proven reserves" has been nothing but upwards since we first started worrying about such things back in the seventies. Boasun's point about the inherent political decisions that are made in the production of those reserves is not hardly without merit.
As to your electric car idea, let's assume for argument's sake that the battery technology is here today and viable. Where does that put us? California already suffers from brown-outs just running their household air conditioners and we import substantial electricity already from Canada. We are perhaps less self-sufficent in terms of electricity production than we are in terms of oil production. Let's not even get into the kum-ba-ya feelings that permeate the alternative energy crowd. It's not only woefully inefficient, it's woefully inadequate for anything even approaching our current needs and is likely to remain so for much of the near future (25 years?). Advances will be made and they will be more rapid as the profit potential rises, ie...energy costs continue to escalate. But, you will have noticed, in the article and comments, that an oil surplus is a few years around the corner in all likelihood as it historically has been when prices rise dramatically.
Here's an interesting article on the cost benefit analysis of buying a hybrid electric car and I'm including a link to a reader's response as well as it shows better some just cocktail napkin calculations as to effectiveness.
The American Spectator
The American Spectator -look for the Don't get me started letter by John Music |
Sway,
I am honestly not educated in the matter. However, it does have interest to me.
But just because it cost 40 grand now, does not mean it will cost 40k later. It is supply and demand. And I would imagine if they made those things like F150's or suburbans, the cost would be vastly less.
In my uneducated opinion, it seems that those in the Electric Only camp are unrealistic (but very optimistic) about the immediate benefits of the cars. It is also my opinion that those in the Drill, Drill, Drill camp are blind to the realities of drilling and oil consumption and anything but more supply is not a viable answer.
Perhaps the truth lies between the two. But if there was sufficient supply, readily available (including refinement), would we be having this conversation? If you were paying a buck a gallon for gas, would we be discussing this?? If we could drill in our backyard and supply all of our own
fuel, would this be a problem? The answer, of course, is no.
However, that is not the case - now is it? We cannot produce enough to meet our needs, we are dependent on a foreign product for our survival (reason enough to get off - no matter the cost), and it IS an exhaustable resource. Drilling is only a stop-gap and not a long term solution.
I do not stand squarely in the "don't drill" camp... but I do stand squarely in the "this is not a fix" camp. It is not a fix. No matter how expensive or cheap gas is, the dynamics and reality of it do not change. We need to get off. The trick, of course, is getting there without major heartache. The better the cars and more efficient the batteries, the less the heartache. THe more investment in the technology, the better the cars.
Of course, I am preaching to a country that happily waits 20 minutes to pay $5 for a cup of Starbucks coffee (which always taste burnt to me), while complaining to the Arab at 7-11 about having to wait in
line to buy their overpriced $4.50/gallon milk.
Solar technology and wind technology ARE the future (esp solar). Battery technology... or better yet, Energy Storage, is the future. Electric cars ARE the future. We just aren't there yet. But at least we are trying. I say, keep trying and try a little harder.
So, just as a note to start a good debate: How much has the Iraq war cost? I forget the current ESTIMATE. If that had been poured into new energy (elec plants, Energy Storage, electric cars), what would the outcome have been?
I still stand with my statemenet that If we had:
1) A batter capable of long term use with close to equal energy in-energy out?
2) A car that could use it and would do so at close to the same performance as current gas autos.
The world would be a different place.
- CD