THis has been a good thread and I have enjoyed it. I am certainly of the opinion that we will not agree, nor that I can in any way influence anyone to change their opinions. That is fine and I have no issue with that. But you are missing one of the very underlying issues with some of your assumptions.
So, let's have an interesting excercise. I want you to answer the questions honestly and factually based upon the information that has been presented.
1) How long does it take to empty a reserve?
2) What is a realistic, even slightly unrealistic, percentage of recovery for the US, Candian, and Mexican reserves?
3) What is the current burn-rate in billions of barrells/year for the US?
4) How long does it take from deciding to drill to gas
pump?
5) How long will it take for any meaningful change to other energy sources (even using coal, as your example... what the heck, let's just stay on the unreplenishable, dirty energy sources)?
My answers:
1) 10-20 Years. It is not immediate. 10 years assumes a great reserve with very porous rock, etc. That is very unlikely on domestic reserves. 20 years is probable.
2) 2%-10%. For most N American reserves, it is actually smaller than that. I will provide you quotes, but I think you agree with the figure.
3) 7.6 billions of barrells/year. Again, publically available information.
4) Years, if the drill is even successful at all.
5) A minimum 10-20 years.
Now, before we go through our excercise, let's take an entertaining (albeit VERY unrealistic) look at a hypothetical example. Let's pretend that we can drop a well this afternoon, and in one millisecond completely drain the entire N American reserves of 200 billion barrells. Let's pretend that Canda and Mexico decide to never use any oil products (especially their own). Let's also pretend that they sell us this oil, just us. Now, let's also pretend that the recoverable out of this is 100%. Every drop out of the ground - not the 1-2% that most of theses reserves have given.
SO, at 7.6 billion burn rate, we are great. 200 billion, divided by 7.6 billion, is: 26.3 years. God Bless America. We are saved for the next 26.3 years. But what then? You flip a switch and go to solar? Nope. Sorry. You have not invested in it. Nuclear? Forget it. You did not build any. Start making coal in gas? At 7.6 billion barrells/year? WHat is the process and cost for that? You now will buy all the rest of your oil overseas. You have no choice. You now have nothing. You cannot make a fly swatter (petroleum product) without a ship arriving and unloading her oil.
Now let's talk reality.
Even on the high and unrealitic side, you are likely not to get anywhere close to 10% recovery and more likely under 5%. I will quote specifics if you want them. 200 billion, even if all recoverable, will take at least 10-20 years if we start today. Mexico and Canada burn about 5 billion barrels of oil/year. That makes the entire N American (current) burn rate 12.6 billion bls. 200/12.6=15.8 years of use, for a SOLID 20 years recovery. It is HIGHLY unlikely that Canada, the US, or Mexico will ever drain the entire reserves completely. So, assuming just a 80% drain, you have 12.7 years of use.
ANWR, the largest US reserve, has between: 4.3 billion (95% probability) and possibly as much as 11.8 billion barrells that is recoverable. Let's use the 11.8 billion barrel example which no one agrees with, but whatever. If you could drain it dry, tomorrow, overnight, etc, and have it ready for use in a millisecond, that would only be a little over a years worth of oil for the US. A YEAR!!!!!! If, using the 95% probability, it is 4.3 billion barrels, you are looking at about a half of a year. A HALF A YEAR USE TO SUCK IT DRY!!! Now the reality: You will get, at best, a half of a years use for 20 years of investment and drilling. DOesn't sound quite so great now, does it. THat is reality.
You need to look into drilling ANWR/BAKKEN. When you hear the oil companies about supplying the United States for years, they are right. BUT HERE IS WHAT YOU ARE NOT READING... THAT IS SUPPLYING THE US AT 5% OF ITS USE FOR YEARS.... NOT SUPPLYING ANY MORE. IT CANNOT. AND THAT 5% TAKES YEARS TO GET TO AND DECADES TO DRAIN.
You guys talk like drilling locally will suddenly change the dynamics of our price at the
pump. It won't. It cannot supply us. I am giving you facts, not theories. Would we have more jobs? Sure. Would oil companies make a lot of money? Certainly. WOuld we put that money back into the hands of the US? Somewhat (assuming we do not use immigrants to pump it for us). But the hard reality is that if you sucked both of our total reserves dry (Bakken and ANWR), you would get one years use of oil for 20 years worth of work. ONE YEAR for 20 YEARS! And guess what. After that... ya got nothin'. THink you are dependent now... wait till you really do have nothing.
Let's summarize these facts:
1) If we completely
drain our (US) reserves of ANWR and the entire Bakken Basin (which Canda owns a LARGE part of too, incidentally), you will
have enough oil to run the US for about one (1) year at current use and assuming no more growth.
2) Draining those reserves will require 10-20 years. THat means you will get one year of use for 10-20 years of production.
3) If we drain the entire N American (including Canadian and Mexican) reserves, with unrealisitic recovery, we have about 200 billion/7.6 billion=26 years for us consuption. However, when removing the realistic recovery, Mexican and Canadian use of their own product, it is considerably less than that. That process also will take 10-20 years at the best of estimates. Canda and Mexico together use 5 billion barrels/year which VASTLY decreases what is actually surplus for potential US use. In fact, it almost cuts it in half.
I have shown a number of a bit over 12 years of use, which is way to generous, to drain all N American reserves.
4) The United States does not have any platform in place to replace oil.
5) Any potential oil replacements will take decades to put in place.
6) The United States is, and will continue to be for the foreseable future, dependent on foreign oil.
The oil Utopia you seem to infer will come with domestic drilling will not happen. It is not true. There simply is not sufficient oil doemistically to supply us. Even if we had all of our reserves tapped and a well on every corner (including offshore FL, CA, etc)... we would only be able to make a
percentage of what we use. Even if somehow we could manage to make enough for domestic use (impossible), we would run out in a matter of a a few years at best. A few years is not sufficient time to get off of oil. It is doubtful 10-20 years is sufficient time to get off of oil. If we are anywhere near peak production (very possible) it may already be too late for us to get out and find some alternatives.
I am not opposed to drilling domestically. I have said that repeatedly. But that is NOT where our emphasis must be. It must be on GETTING OFF. I just cannot see how you can possibly feel otherwise. To drill locally for the purpose of hoping it will decrease what you are paying at the pump is very short sighted. Even at its best, it provides very little (a very small percentage) of our use and is actually a very small reserve.
Here is a nice example of what you can expect by draining ANWR: ANWR is our largest reserve. The estimate is to add 5% to the total US use. THat could be considered a 5% decrease in oil, assuming there is no cost in taking our own oil (not likely). That 5% equals, at todays price of $3.50/gallon, 17.5 cents savings. That means that instead of paying $3.50/gallon, you will be paying $3.325/gallon. Wow. What a difference, eh?? Let's pretend we can drain the Bakken dry and Canada lets us have it for free and we drill it for free. Let's pretend it supplies what ANWR can supply... so let's take 10% off the price at the pump. That means instead of paying $3.50/gallon, you pay $3.15. Watch out Hummer, here I come.
Get real, folks. WE HAVE TO GET OFF! There is NOT a domestic answer.
- CD