[PBzeer]

This is offered, as much as possible, as a dispassionate look at the first major decisions by the two major presidential candidates, and how those decisions may effect the election. Some may agree, some may disagree, but that's what choices are about. These are though, my own opinions, and not a regurgitation of others views and statements.

In choosing Biden, Obama has chosen someone contrary to, and in fact, the target, of his message of hope and change. Someone who epitomizes the "politics as usual" that Obama says needs to end. The choice did little to heal the divisions left over from the primary, and by some Hillary supporters, was taken as a slap in the face. It also, seems counter-productive to retaining the enthusiasm of the youth vote by making Obama seem like just another politician, and not the new and different candidate that they voted for.

I don't think the choice particularly costs him any votes, but neither does it make him overly appealing to undecided ones. And, if one accepts the conventional wisdom that Americans prefer a divided government, then the choice could be seen as moving the undecideds towards McCain.

The major impact to me though is that it dampens the energy and enthusiasm outside the core liberal base, and among those not usually inclined to be passionate about the election, by giving them nothing new. And in an election which many see as a foregone conclusion, this could be fatal.

-----------------------

The main difference in the McCain pick, is that he chose, not just someone who mirrors his message, but in many ways, intensifies it. This gives, at least the impression, that his message is consistent, and that he will follow through on it. This does make a difference.

Though both made choices that appealed to their bases, McCain's was neither enthused, nor passionate about him, unlike the case on the Obama side. That dynamic, has now changed. Changed in a way that is crucial to McCain's chances of winning. No Republican can win without a committed and energetic base behind them.

As regards the undecided vote, I see a double-edged sword. It gives cover to both those who are inclined to vote party first, though not particularly comfortable with the candidate. As well as those who are not particularly comfortable with crossing party lines. In the main though, I think it gives a slight edge to McCain on the undecideds, by offering a ticket that is different from the same old politics as usual.

--------------

I have no idea if my observation will prove correct. Either in whole or part. I do though, feel they are valid. We shall see.