Quote:
Originally Posted by wannam
A couple of things to ponder:
1) Ignore most polling, especially those polling "Likely Voters". Such polls ignore two significant groups....those who have recently registered and those with only cell phones (read mostly young voters).....both groups would likely lean towards Obama.
2) McCain, should he be elected, would have a very difficult (if not impossible) task getting many of his proposals through a congress certain to be even more democratic-leaning than it already is.
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Two good points...but I would disagree a bit. Why would LIKELY voters exclude recently registered? Where are you getting that from? Each survey qualifies the respondent.
I would also add that there is another effect that is not accounted for...people who SAY they will vote for a black man but in the end, do not. This has been documented in several other elections where the polls AND exit polls indicated a different result.
Another effect is the "student" effect which makes even registered students less likely to vote than others.
Net net...I think the polls ARE compromised by a lot of factors...which probably end up cancelling each others effects out.
As to McCain finding it impossible to govern/change things with an overwhelmingly democratic congress...I personally find that comforting. I would much prefer a national government that does nothing than one which would actually IMPLEMENT Obama's program, confirm his Supreme Court Nominations and change our way of life while compromising the security of the country.