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Originally Posted by Rickm505
Thanks... I think...
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Rick, I totally didn't mean it in a bad way.
To give an example of the above, take last week for example. I was watching the market, using chart patterns, momentum indicators, VIX, oversold indicators, etc, waiting for the first bounce of a bottom. When the S&P hit 1170 I was happy, and then I waited for the inevitable rally, which came soon enough, as it always does. My reasoning had little to do with the non-sense they were talking about on the news. The only thing I cared about was that the news was convincing everyone that the world was ending, that it was reinforcing what the market was doing, and causing people to act as a crowd that all moves in one direction, which always means a rally is imminent.
You on the other hand were posting about how bad things were, about mortgages, about all the stuff going on in the news, and what the government should or shouldn't do, etc, a whole puzzle of reasoning that I never did understand. You were talking about how bad things were for people, economic numbers, something about GDP, about what Republicans were doing or saying, and then finally you were vindicated in your reasoning when the government did what you said they should have done and the market rallied. You even invoked Cramer's name at one point. I don't mean to characterize what you said in the wrong way, people can go back and read it themselves.
But see that's what I find so amusing. It's like two parallel universes existing in the same space. I got my rally, and you got your rally, the result was exactly the same at the exact same time, and yet the lines of reasoning were
COMPLETELY different. That's what I really enjoy about it. I mean I think that the things you are saying, for you, actually hold together in a coherent way that makes sense, and I know what I think holds together, and yet what we think is completely different with the same result. I mean I didn't even know the government was going to do anything, I couldn't have cared less, I knew I was getting my rally regardless of what they did, yet that became the "reason" that the market rallied.
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There are times that your posts are a bit confusing as you seem to switch sides quite a bit.
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Editing because I didn't see this part when I wrote my response. Yes, of course I switch sides a lot, because the market is always moving and changes directions. I am always watching for what is going to happen next. In general we actually agree, I think the long term trend is down, but it won't go straight down, it does rally.