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Old 09-26-2008
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Plausible Deniability
 
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The reliability of wind and wx predictions varies. Sometimes, if you can hear or read the more complete forecast, they will tell you what confidence factor they have in the forecast. But if you learn to read the weather maps with all those nasty lines and fronts on them--you can get a much better idea of the reliability yourself, for your area.

I know, from observation, that if the weather is moving in from "this" direction, it will move in reliabily--unless there's an occluded front, or something moving up the coast, or a stalled whatever out the other way to complicate things. And if the whether is coming from the opposite direction--I know it is way less reliable.

Stick me down a thousand miles away, and I don't have the reference frame to draw on anymore, it gets way harder to guess.

But that's also part of sailing. Take whatever you're dealt, make lemonade from the lemons, and just keep your head up for squall lines and flashbangs. Squalls I'll often chance, getting zapped I won't. (I float well, but I'm not fireproof.)
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