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Cam, the jury is still out for me as to whether warming is occurring. As you are pointing out, I've seen a variety of evidence pointing both directions. My personal, anecdotal experience says that it is indeed increasing, but even if that's true, I recognize that there are huge swings in the annual mean temperature.
What I'd be interested in seeing is just how huge those swings are, relative to the overall increase over the past hundred years. If there's a two-degree swing every couple of years, then a two-degree increase over a hundred years is not interesting either. In statistical terms, given the assumption that there is no warming going on, what's the probability of observing temperatures as extreme as we're seeing? My guess is: pretty high.
Does anybody have a link to numerical temperature data over the past hundred years or so?
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