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Originally Posted by craigimass
The Oil boys did help destroy our nations economy by making certain that we did not develop the technologies of the future.
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Craig, you may be an energy buff, but I think you have got the economic history wrong.
Oil was "discovered" in Pennsylvania in 1859. The GDP (constant dollars) of the US economy was: $71.98 billion ( in 2000 dollars).
When John D. Rockefeller founded the Standard Oil Company in 1870 the GDP was just about $100 billion
The GDP of the economy in 2008 was something on the order of $11,652.0 billion (also in 2000 dollars).
If the "oil boys" were responsible for all that economic destruction, I think we should just get out of their way and let them run things.
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Everyone who has studied it (except end of world types) has found that our current oil-based economy is NOT sustainable. That means it cannot go on....
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Yes, you've got that right -- things that are "NOT sustainable" by definition "cannot go on", but could you please cite the studies by "everyone".
I don't think your assertion that the economy "can't go on" is correct. The economy oil-based or not, will go on and it will continue to grow provided capital resources (financial, human and natural) are employed wisely. The economic history of the world thusfar has shown that the "wisdom" of the free market in pricing and deploying capital is vastly superior to any other mechanism yet developed by man -- and that certainly includes the geniuses that have run / are running governments.
I would hope we are wise enough to leave the process of "picking winners" to corporations and venture capitalists. They, unlike government workers, have skin in the game, which seems to make all the difference in the world when it comes to investing wisely in the future. No one (aside from environmentalists and NIMBYs) is keeping private capital from investing in wind, solar and other alternative energy sources. If the demand is there, and if investors believe that future returns (including any subsidies politicians might be dumb enough to offer) are at or above the cost of capital, resources will be invested in alternative energy. While I may be wrong, I think the biggest risk to sustained investment in alternative energy is rising oil prices -- as it seems that everytime there has been a sustained spike in oil prices, proven reserves have also taken a big jump. In the near term (i.e. next 25-50 years), the real limits to oil production are almost entirely due by eco-politics.
I spend a career thinking about things like this and now I'm happy I don't have to and can go sailing. My grandson is a very smart fellow. I think I'll let him figure it out.
PS -- I'm now asking myself, "Why did I come here? I should have stayed in 'Gear and Maintenance'"
