GDP revisions released today. Remember Chuckles and I arguing over whether or not we were in a recession, back in 2008? Chuckles was standing by Gov data which said things were fine while I was arguing that main st. was collapsing.
Here are the revised GDP numbers: Notice what they show for 2007.
Earlier GDP releases showed 2007 in a nice growth curve. The fact that secondary mortgage markets had collapsed, banks were failing and real estate was collapsing didn't phase those great looking GDP numbers one bit. Yet the fact is they were very wrong, and our government published them anyway. A lot of people, like Chuckles, believed them.
So, my question is.... was Chuckles hoodwinked? Sandbagged, lied to? Or was this an honest mistake caused by the obvious challenges of measuring GDP in a dynamic environment?
I believe the difference between a positive 3% and a negative 4% growth in GDP is way outside of the margin for error. I think we were lied to.
Now we're being told that the recession is over. Yet employment is still falling, exports are still falling, foreclosures are still at record levels, consumer spending is still falling... but the recession is over?
Foreclosure rates are up 32% between July 2008 and July 2009. 1 in every 154 homes in Florida is in the foreclosure process. 1 in every 123 homes in California is in the foreclosure process. 1 in every 56 homes in Nevada is in foreclosure. 361,000 households received foreclosure notices in July 2009. As of May 2009, nearly 35 million Americans were receiving food stamps, a record. This signals an end to the recession?
Fifteen states and the District of Columbia reported jobless rates of at least 10.0 percent in July. Michigan continued to have the highest unemployment rate among the states, 15.0 percent. Rhode Island recorded the next highest rate, 12.7 percent, followed by Nevada, 12.5 percent; California and Oregon, 11.9 percent each; and South Carolina, 11.8 percent. The rates in California, Nevada, and Rhode Island set new series highs, along with the rate in Georgia (10.3 percent). Bureau of Labor Statistics, 21 August 2009.
End of recession? Thoughts?