Quote:
Originally Posted by Cruisingdad
Hey Rick,
I understand that you can make numbers and stats say anything you want. But if what you are suggesting is true, that is flat out fraud and manipulation. Now I understand the whole U3 and U6 thing... but what you are talking about is a whole other level.
You sure about that? Who controls that?
- CD
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Sure? Ummm.... you know I'm sure or I wouldn't have posted. Here is the esteemed BLS describing the birth death model.
CES Net Birth/Death Model
However noble the original idea, what's happened is that it's being utilized to twist the numbers. As Windy says, these numbers are entirely fiction. So much so there are now two reported unemployment numbers to choose from.
For instance, the June and July reports were quietly revised downward long after the original optimistic reports ( optimistic in that they were not so bad) were released. To keep them in their original state in the face of reality would completely uncover the farce.
A better yard stick is the ADP monthly report. (Which is dismal.) At least it is now before someone begins arm twisting.