Quote:
Originally Posted by chris_gee
The birth death adjustment has nothing to do with births or deaths of people. As the reference says it is to take account of the start and termination of primarily small businesses. The business survey does not include new businesses or those that fail before they are part of the survey. The catch is that the adjustment tends to add more jobs during a downturn, that is it lags the change.
As to the other point while job losses were 216000 it seems that the number employed dropped by 981,000, according to the household survey, while the unemployed dropped by 387,000. The last would be due to discouraged workers no longer seeking work so not being counted, and if my memory is correct there is a time limit on the period one is considered unemployed.
The numbers don't match well. Part of the problem is that the employed includes those working part time who want full time work, and those who have had to take much lower paid jobs. However both have diminished spending power which is not fully reflected in the unemployment rate. See The Market Ticker |
Read the Market Ticker. WOw! That is pretty much what we have been saying here. I bet Rick and Windy will like it. I will say, it scares the crap out of me. I also simply cannot understand how people are so blind to it.
But the bottom line is that somewhere, somehow, someone is terribly wrong. Maybe it is us (I shouldhope so), maybe it is the government (I hope not), but there is a considerable disconnect between the two. It seems the longer the two stay disconnected, the further they will seperate. And when reality sets in, it will not be pretty.
- CD