Quote:
Originally Posted by Cruisingdad
|
CD-- a few quick things you might want realize about
:
bond traders-- this part of the market are proffessional bears, there are no bulls only bears who are occaisionally less miserable-- they say they are the canary in the mine, just not a very dependable canary, they are wrong much more often than the stocks markets are at guesstimating recessions/inflation. bond markets are what? 7 to 9 times bigger than equity markets, so yes there is some serious money here-and that is why you have to have a certain patience with this group- this group is forever seeing the glass as at least half empty.
currency-- if your domestic demand is low and unused capacity is high you need to stimluate economic activity-- there are many ways of doing so, one of them is to talk down your currency ( not destroy it, just let it ooze down a bit) so that your exporting companies and industries can take up some of the economic activity load no longer being carried by the US consumer. China wants to creat a consumer society, it would be nice if they could somehow get their people getting the benefit from some USA goods and services but the currencies don't work well, us $ too high to remimbi which does not yet float..
Trade wars-- it should not seem like a stretch of the imagination for one to hope that the leaders of the #1 economy and the #3 world economy are adults and are capable of acting as such-- it would not benefit either party, why shoot each other in the foot and start a trade war? Reality: There have not been tires produced in the USA in thirty plus years, the united rubber workers union disappeared into the bowels of the united steel workers in what-- the late 70? That is just nuts-- but it does make for some great headlines, just substitute buggy whip makers for tiremakers
--you need to look obliquely, who or what else falls into line to the benefit of both USA and China by this sabre rattling?????...couple of things come to mind: lower currency for USA, China can save face by expanding its currency assets, USA corps can expand business, excess capaicity starts to get used up--ahh the start of a new business cycle..
Those foggey oblique edges are where the real story lies, the talking heads are all part of the misinformation, they do not even know they are pawns...
JMHO