The rubber bellows ends at two places. It's clamped to the shaft log with a hose clamp on one end and it's clamped to a carbon seal ring on the other end. Make sure both hose clamps are tight. The carbon seal ring butts up against a stainless steel collar. The stainless steel collar needs to push against the carbon seal with enough force to keep the water outside your boat. Too little pressure will cause a leak. So will a piece of grit or something in between the collar and carbon seal. The sand paper trick will clean any grit out. You might also grab the collar and try and slide it one way or the other to see if it's loose. A loose collar could back away from the carbon seal and cause a bad day. One other thing, the rubber bellows tube doesn't last forever. IIRC, it's recommended that it be replaced every ten years. I just replaced mine this summer after another member, JRD22, posted the recommended replacement interval.
1983 Fraser 41
La Conner, WA
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Boating for over 25 years, some of them successfully.