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Hull shape
One thing that I have not seen mentioned in this thread is the factor of hull shape in determining how far heeled you should be. Some boats, especially racing boats built to certain rules, are expected to have a fairly large amount of heel to increase their waterline length, and thus their top end speed. This is especially true of beamy designs like the IOR "bulging" designs of old.
My Nicholson 32 has a 165 degree angle of vanishing stability - the product of three tons of lead in her full keel. It would be untrue to say she can't go over - but I have a feeling it would take quite a sea state to do so - likely a large wave beam on AND a huge gust, and some bad luck. I don't have to reef in 20+ knots of apparent wind. However, this year I have made myself promise that I WILL reef if only to better balance the helm and stop my tiller arm from getting so tired...and have lead the main halyard back to the cockpit (rather than the mast winch) to make sure I have no excuse not do do it early...
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