The processes by which hurricanes form and subsequently strengthen depend on at least three conditions: warm surface waters, high humidity, and the ability to concentrate heat in a vertical column. Obviously, summer in the tropics brings the necessary warm water and humidity. The latter factor, however, depends on winds at all levels of the surrounding atmosphere to be essentially from the same direction and at the same speed. Dangerous storms begin to form when air is warmed by contact with the water and is moistened by evaporation from it. The need for these conditions explains why hurricanes form only in summer and early fall months when the waters are warm. However, even when the water temperature and surrounding humidity are favorable for hurricane formation, adverse winds in the upper atmosphere often prevent them from developing. This is why El Nino years in the Pacific, which often spew strong west winds into the Caribbean, have lower incidence of big storms.
The eye of the hurricane is relatively calm. The most violent activity takes place in the area immediately adjacent to the eye, an area called the eyewall. As the spiraling air rises and cools, moisture condenses into tiny droplets around the eye wall, forming clouds and bands of rain that weathermen refer to as feeder bands. The condensation process releases even more latent heat, causing the air to rise even higher. That in turn results in more condensation. The final result is a column of rapidly rising air that produces an intense low-pressure area near the storm center.
At the top of the eyewall most of the air is propelled outward in an anticyclonic flow. Some of the air, however, moves inward and sinks into the eye. This air is warmed rapidly by compression; and as it warms, its moisture holding capacity increases and the air-dries out. In fact, the eye becomes nearly free of clouds in intense hurricanes. At the middle to upper levels of the storm, the temperature inside the eye is much warmer than outside. This temperature difference creates a large pressure differential across the eyewall, contributing to the violence of the storm.
I had the opportunity to leave my shelter and experience the eye of Hurricane Hugo. I went from experiencing a violent storm to a perfectly calm, clear nightI could even see the stars. This tranquil event did not last long as I was blown away by an immediate change from calm to hurricane force winds. What made it even worse was that the winds were now from the opposite direction.
What You Can Expect High wind, rain in quantities that often produce floods, storm surge, and tornadoes are the significant effects of a hurricane that will cause sailors grief.
Will you be struck by a hurricane? Many researchers think we are entering a period of increased hurricane intensity, more like the period from 1940 through 1969 when monster storms swept ashore with greater frequency. Anyone who lived through Hurricane Andrew or other recent storms might disagree, but the experts say that for the past quarter-century we have gotten off easy. The last Category 5, or "catastrophic," hurricane was Camille, which struck the Gulf Coast in 1969 with winds over 200 mph and a storm surge 24 feet high. Since then, the experts say that hurricane activity has been mild. Having gone through Hurricane Hugo in 1989, I am not sure that "mild" is the proper term. I saw boats stacked up like cordwood, my office in Charleston was awash in almost 5 feet of water, and cars left behind floated awayhundreds of homes were destroyed and thousands damaged.
William Gray, the Colorado State University hurricane guru, and other noted meteorologists annually issue their respective predictions for the impending storm season. These forecasts are often misread by the general public. While the forecasts do attempt to predict the number of storms and their intensity that will occur during a particular hurricane season, they make no attempt to predict when those storms will occur, where they will be, or even whether any storm will strike land at all.
When considering the possibilities that you will be hit, it's important that you take hurricane statistics into considerationactually calculating your odds of being at ground zero by considering the number and percentage of storms that have landed in your vicinity over the past 100 years. Obviously the more storms in any given year, the more likely it is that you might be affected. There were 65 named storms between 1995 and 1999, and 41 of these actually reached hurricane strength at 75 mph. The four years between 95 and 99 were the most active on recordin 99 five major hurricanes evolved giving it a record for hurricanes.
The best advice is to plan for a catastrophic storm every year. You may end up buying supplies and bracing your home and boat for nothing, but then again, you may not be wasting your time. Last year I put my hurricane shutters up and took them down three times, but we were only grazed by Floyd, who caused no substantial damage. The people of North Carolina, though, weren't so lucky and were inundated with catastrophic floods from those three stormsyou just never know.
Rating a Hurricane
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a 1 to 5 scale based on a hurricane's intensity. It is used to give an estimate of the potential property damage and flooding expected in an inland area due to a hurricane landfall. Wind speed is the determining factor in the scale, since storm surge values are highly dependent on the slope of the continental shelf in the landfall region. Note that all winds speeds are quoted using the US one-minute average.