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post #10 of Old 05-04-2011
hellosailor
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package, fifty years ago talking about the pacific he might have been right. Today? The key word is SKILL. That's the only variable left in the equations.

The Atlantic is covered much better than the Pacific, and IIRC there are a couple of key weather satellites out of order right now over the Pacific, but the bottom line is that with live satellite imagery and modern meteorology, there's dman good weathercasting for most of the planet.

This doesn't guarantee your safety, but it does ensure that IF YOU WORK ON THE SKILLS, you will be able to appraise the forecasts and cross safely when there is a reliable weather window. That doesn't mean blindly listening to the forecasts--because you also have to learn when to believe them, and when the confidence level from the forecasters really is not solid.

I've had "solid" forecasts for balmy 5 knot weather turn overnight into 40 knots and 8' waves when simple coastal forecasts weren't so simple. When you hear words like "occluded front" and "stalled"...you throw out the forecast. Other times you'll hear that the jet streams have been unmoving, the wind and weather are clear and consistent for a thousand miles upwind of you, and you can expect them to stay the same for a while.

Assuming of course, "a while" is long enough for you to cross. If something breaks and your week long trip turns into two weeks...there goes the forecast.

Meteorology can get awfully complicated, but with all the online resources at least you can start studying up on it for free!
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