In the mid to upper Bay, the wind dirrection will determine whether the water stacks up.
Windfinder - Wind & weather forecast Herring Bay
With the current track, the wind will be out of the north and east and the surge should be limitied to a few feet. With Isabel, which tracked much further inland, the wind was out of the south and the surge was ~8 feet, depending on the location.
I would be concerned if my marina is exposed to the north, since the waves will be unusually large, but in general we should get off lightly. It should be no more severe than a strong winter storm. Because the trees are in leaf, there may be more breakage.