Originally Posted by pdqaltair
In the mid to upper Bay, the wind dirrection will determine whether the water stacks up.
Windfinder - Wind & weather forecast Herring Bay
With the current track, the wind will be out of the north and east and the surge should be limitied to a few feet. With Isabel, which tracked much further inland, the wind was out of the south and the surge was ~8 feet, depending on the location.
I would be concerned if my marina is exposed to the north, since the waves will be unusually large, but in general we should get off lightly. It should be no more severe than a strong winter storm. Because the trees are in leaf, there may be more breakage.
This is my first storm since moving to Herrington Harbor South so I'm not real sure what to expect. The marina is in a small (man made?) bowl with the entrance aligned north-northeast, so it looks like with winds from the north and east as forecast that water could pile up.
I'm towards the back of the marina, so any wave action that makes it into the marina should be pretty well broken up by the time it gets to me and if Irene gets the memo and stays 75-80 miles offshore of Norfolk the wind shouldn't be any worse than a summer squall line.
I'll take down the canvas for sure but I'm still not sure about taking down the jib or just wrapping it with the spin/spare halyards and leaving it in place.
I do a port side tie up then use the starboard fore and aft cleats just to hold the boat off the finger. I plan to add another set of springs to starboard and deploy all my fenders and fender boards as well. My major concern is with adjusting lines for the surge. I'm thinking I'll stay on the boat Saturday as long as its safe and adjust the lines as best I can before leaving then hope for the best.