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"Does anyone know where to look for a real scientific answer???"
Sure. Any plasma physicist can tell you that when there's a kajillion volts and amps flowing around, it is going to go anywhere it damn well pleases. You can influence the path, sometimes change the odds a little, but for hard answers and guarantees? Uh-uh!
Short of that, "modern" science still doesn't have definite answers for how to keep lightning away. That's why NASA, with their lightning rod on the launch tower, still went exploring to see what might have fried when the lightning rod "took" a big strike this weekend. They just don't know. The final decision was based on a very low-tech inspection routine: The techs SMELLED something burnt.
All the high tech science, and the Mark1Nose was still what they chose.
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