Originally Posted by peterchech
Interesting Jon. I mean, is there any true "window" though? How many days were you out past the prediction before the prediction turned out to be wrong? Is a forecast good for at least 48 hours? 24? none?
You need to learn to read the synoptic charts and learn local weather patterns.
In some situations the weather is very predictable for 3 to 5 days and the reliability of a forecast nears 100%
In others say where you have strong instability, sea temps above 83 degrees and weak pressure gradients the weather is very unpredictable even for 12 hours.
I learned my weather lore flying hang gliders and the book I relied on was written by Chapman [ I think - it was a while ago ]