Re: wind conditions and reefing
I like Denise's point.
Since you will be there though, you will be able see the conditions for yourself. The wind is forecast to be out of the south which can set up a pretty good chop in the river with wind against current. The waters get very sloppy around the Battery, Governor's Island and the stautue with all the ferry traffic coming and going You could find yourself in 4 foot short period wave action coming from all directions. Picture a washing machine. It can get downright nasty at the narrows.
You can often find some relief in the bay ridge flats in the anchorage area.
If it were me, I'd probably set a reef at the dock and hank on or plan for a working jib.
It's a lot easier to shake out a reef than to find yourself way over powered in the river and trying to set a reef while you are dealing with current, traffic and the bounce.
At the same time, you'll need enough drive to keep your boat speed up, those short period waves knock your speed down to nothing and you can lose steerage. Not a good thing when you're dodging ferry boats, and tugs pushing barges
Many of us sail up or down river depending upon the current direction at the time; trying to time it so that we have it with us both ways. for shorter periods of time you can pay a price of either having to motor sail home against a current or squeeze every bit out of your sails that you can...
Besides your eyes, eldridge is your best companion on the river.
Good Winds out of the south is a run up river...probably don't even need a mainsail.
and a beat home... The river can have a wide variety of conditions withn just a few miles of lower manhattan.