wind conditions and reefing
I remember sailing with a weird forecast like this once, 10-15 with 30 kt gusts. I went out main only then after an hour of light winds put up the genny. Guess what happened. BAM. Huge gust pinned my rail under the water and flooded through my foolishly open portlight. After a couple minutes trying with limited success to hold the boat into the wind an wait it out (as soon as i caught any wind the rail would dunk immediately) I had to make a quick dash on deck to drop sails. The gust was probably well above 25.
Anyway, use my anecdote to help inform you.