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post #146 of Old 10-29-2012
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Re: Halloween Hurricane

Originally Posted by skygazer View Post
There will not be a hurricane warning, not even for NYC. The 'new' NHC seemingly exists only to entertain graduate students in a lab class for meteorologists, not to warn ordinary people who foot the bill.

The Hurricane of '38 would probably not be called a hurricane today. Just asinine technicalities that make a distinction never made in the past. Likely there will no longer be "hurricanes" this far north.

I think everyone should write their congressmen and express their disapproval with this nonsense. And with the weather services who absolutely had on their screens the map I posted a full week ago Monday the 22nd on the first post in this thread, showing a major hurricane about to make landfall in the mid Atlantic coast of the USA.

I did not mention but due to pulling my boat and other necessities on Friday the 19th - I expected a storm, just not this big - I didn't have computer access and energy enough to look at models until Sunday/Monday. The models may have been just as clear about this storm before I posted that map. The map is dated Monday 10/22 for 216 hours ahead.

The weather services could certainly say 30-40% chance of major hurricane hitting the center of the east coast, or what ever percent they wanted. We have enough gambling that everyone would understand the risk. They will no doubt say "we don't want to panic people", but waiting till the last minute is the sure way to cause panic. Longer warning would allow stores to get in food, batteries, generators etc and make less panic and more readiness.

Also, people are more serious with a hurricane warning. Just this morning my wife heard the weather and said "So we aren't getting the hurricane?"!!

The ECMWF last I looked showed the storm breaking up once solidly over land, I hope it does. The GFS shows it holding together longer, and is quite accurate when close to the event.
Does it really matter what they call it? NYC shut down the subway last night. My sister says there is no public transportation there. I've been reading the NY Times, Wash Post, Phila Inquirer, and Boston Globe every day and Sandy has been in the headlines since at least mid-last week. And remember, it's only been in the last 24-48 hrs that they knew for sure it was not going to turn out to sea. But the projected track has been targeting a hit on the Jersey shore for days now.

Regardless of whether they called it a hurricane, a tropical storm, or a big wet and windy mess, anyone who didn't know there was a good possibility of something bad hitting the mid-Atlantic coast must have been living in a cave. Seems to me that NOAA and the National Hurricane Center have been putting out the information they had and the news media have been reporting it. And local governments have been responding, Gov Christie ordered evacuation of towns around Cape May a few days ago. Hard for me to see what additional information could have been provided.
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