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post #54 of Old 10-29-2012
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Re: Will Hurricane Sandy Affect You?

Dave - That takes real balls to ride it out on the boat! Rain has stopped here, and forecasts for more rain have been really cut back to about 2" more. That's it. The wind is really howling past my house, but direction is parallel to my boat, so hopefully it won't blow off the stands. Direction will shift tomorrow to a little less favorable direction, but speed is forecast to be less than tonight.

Here's something I posted on Facebook a few minutes ago:

After all the hype today about the storm hitting during an "astronomical high tide" (is there any high tide that is not astronomical?), the hurricane came ashore at 6 pm, exactly halfway between high tide and low tide. (They don't mention that on TV because it takes away from the hype.) The barometer in Lewes has bottomed out, confirming that the eye has passed by the mouth of the Delaware Bay. NOAA's level sensors there show that the tidal surge peaked at about 5 feet, but it came before landfall, very close to low tide. All of this means that the effect of the surge could be less in Philadelphia than the hypsters are suggesting. The effect of runoff down the river could actually be as much as the surge coming up the river.

I am not an expert at tidal hydrology, so do not alter any precautionary plans based on what I'm about to say. But it sure looks to me like the river's high tide tonight (1:36 am in Philadelphia) will peak at a level of about 8-10 feet, no worse than Irene, and similar to April 17, 2011, when a spring rainstorm took the river to 10 feet (see link ).

I'll check in the morning to see if my prediction was right. I hope so, otherwise my boat (currently sitting on land a hundred yards from the edge of the river) may end up floating away with a bunch of other boats, refrigerators, trees, and other debris.

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2001 Catalina 34MkII Breakin' Away (at Rock Hall Landing Marina)
PO of 1998 Catalina 250WK Take Five (new owners relocated to Baltimore's Inner Harbor)
1991 17' Trophy (Lake Wallenpaupack)
1985 14' Phantom (Lake Wallenpaupack)
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