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post #196 of Old 11-02-2012
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Re: HMS Bounty in trouble...

Doesnt anyone else remember the projected storm track published on
the 24th ( I think it was way back in this thread ) that showed
the overwhelming probability of the storm curving out into the Atlantic
without comming ashore ? I have to say honestly on that day
it does look that by hugging the coast line he could make it to
Florida. Now I believe the 25th and for sure the 26th (on the
2nd day out) the storm models began to show storm path
curving into new england. I can justify him leaving port leaving
with info from the 24th but on the 26th the storm news was bad
and he had a chance to find safe harbor somewhere. On the 26th
is where I think his decision making was faulty and he even sent
the facebook message after two rough days at sea that he seemed
to recognize that he had underestimated the difficulties ahead.

I am not trying to pass judgement but I do think it fun to recreate
what info was available day by day and speculate whether the
captain knew it and then then look at his actions to try to understand
his "bets" as essentially that is what all our decisions are. Some are
carry more risk than others.

I would like to see a replay day by day of the ships position and the
weather forcasts that were available on those days.

You can bet that from the survivors we will someday know more
about the conversations and decisions made aboard the ship
on a day by day basis and how both the crew and the ship
were handling the rough conditions. I think it would be safe
to say most of the survivors had had not had any sleep
for 36 or maybe even 48 hours and the skipper maybe
even 72 hours.. How could anyone sleep
in 25 to 30 foot seas in that small of a boat and probably
they were in a constant state of panic for fear of dying.

So in addition to the crews lack of experience and training, being short handed,
and overwhelming fatigue, we might have had a ship that was
basically being operated by maybe two people who had
not slept for a couple of days. Yessir there will be movie
rights worth millions. Wonder who gets the millions ?

Last edited by preventec47; 11-02-2012 at 11:41 AM.
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