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Old 11-08-2012
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Re: The Emotions Over The Bounty Tragedy

Okay, Roger, interesting perspective. So, let's wonder more about Minne's three factors: weather, ship design & crew capabilities, captain's decisions. How did those three factors interplay, and were there any other factors? Which dominated? How did they combine? What are mitigating and exacerbating circumstances? Those are the sorts of things the C.G. investigation may tell us, and what I'd like to wait for.

Those who met the captain, and stood on the ship, seem to have tremendous respect for him, and that's why some of this doesn't make sense to us. Did he delude himself, as you suggest, or were there other factors he was aware of that we aren't? Did he count on something (or someone) that failed him? How many of the crew were incapacitated by seasickness, for example?

This becomes the equivalent of the "struck by lightning" phenomenon. How do you decide what is a reasonable risk when leaving port? Are you willing to go sailing when there's a 20% chance of t-storms? 50%? Wouldn't you be safer waiting for a perfect day with a zero percent chance? (The answer is, of course, but then you never go anywhere, as you allude to).
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