Originally Posted by chef2sail
How about we let the facts come out. Conclusions based on hypothesis by ametuers without a grasp on what is fact, what is rumor, what is contrived fact leads to nowhere really. Let the professionsals figure it out.
Ever notice the TRUE professioals are not predisopsing themselves to conclusions here?
Sorry, but seems to me if one is determined to avoid ANY speculation about this incident whatsoever, seems the only way to do that is to refrain from discussing it at all...
Much of what you presumably would consider 'speculation' has been, in fact, based upon reported 'facts' that have subsequently been proven to be erroneous... I was chided earlier in this thread for "rushing to judgement", for example, by another poster who had initially passed on the information that the BOUNTY was on passage from Nova Scotia, and had attempted to sail east of the storm...
I've tried to refrain from pure speculation here, but some of the information that has come to light as "fact" positively reeks of incredulity... Waldbridge's claim of "having sailed the B0UNTY in 70-foot seas", for example... If by that he means a significant wave height of 70', do you all comprehend how extraordinarily rare in reality such conditions are?
Generally, the statistical distribution of the individual wave heights is well approximated by a Rayleigh distribution. For example, given that Hs is 70 feet, statistically:
1 in 10 will be larger than 75 ft
1 in 100 will be larger than 105 ft
1 in 1000 will be larger than 125 ft
Seriously??? I know a retired ship captain from Oz, sailed the Bass Strait for 18 years... He has NEVER seen conditions remotely close to what could legitimately be described as "70-foot seas"... So, yeah, I feel pretty comfortable 'speculating' that Waldbridge is full of sh_t with that particular claim - much less, that standing on deck in such conditions was not much different from standing on her deck at dockside... I don't think one has to be a "credentialed expert" to realize such posturing is pure BS...
If anything, seems to me that most of the 'speculation' engaged in during the course of this thread has come from those who appear to be loosely "in defense of" of the captain. I have seen nothing to support the notion advanced that the BOUNTY might have been ordered to leave New London, for example - and yet, some hear have tossed that out as a potential mitigating factor... Aside from appearing purely speculative, it's a moot point, in any event. Even if the BOUNTY had
been ordered to depart, Waldbridge still had many options to consider. He might have tried to get inside the hurricane barrier at New Bedford, or run up Narragannsett Bay... Or, put into a place like Pt Jefferson on the north shore of LI... Or, up the Hudson, or Delaware, or into Norfolk/Hampton Roads, or up the York or James Rivers... Any of which, he had time to do... No freakin' way would he have not only been ordered to leave New London, but to attempt to shoot the gap between Sandy and Hatteras, as well...
Finally, I see plenty of pretty informed opinion and knowledge being passed here, no shortage of posters here and elsewhere who have a pretty fair idea what they're talking about. I think it's a bit unfair to dismiss some out of hand simply because they might technically be coming from "amateurs", instead of credentialed professionals... Frankly, one of the stupidest opinions I've seen offered anywhere regarding this tragedy came from an ostensible ship captain in defense of Waldbridge in one of the earlier articles cited - something to the effect of "he actually had A VERY GOOD PLAN, he just didn't count on the complete loss/failure of his pumps and generators..."
I don't care what that guy's credentials are, IMHO such is the opinion of a fool, and certainly not any captain I'd ever care to go to sea with...
btw, it's also been reported as fact
that the BOUNTY had sailed "through" at least 2 hurricanes previously... Has anyone found cites or confirmations that would be more specific?
Again, perhaps it's just me... But it seems as if those who believe that some mitigating factors might eventually emerge, that will justify or make the captain's decisions and actions appear reasonable, prudent, or seamanlike, are the ones who are REALLY engaging in "speculation", here... (grin) Seems rather unlikely, when it appears no one here so far can even IMAGINE
a scenario in which this voyage made any real sense...