That's a great graphic!
It does show his dilemma. But he was still wrong because he turned into the Gulf Stream. Wind against waves.
you Americans you a phrase no one else uses (I love the phrase)... "Double guess". He has tried to double guess it and failed. His chess game, as you put it, was lost a long time before. Like many, professionals or amateurs, of the old school they don't believe the modern technology. If he believed NOAA they would have been right. Well, no, not really, because they NEVER made any easting!
The phrase is "Second Guess" damn-it! Get it right!
What I recall about the forecasting was that the first forecasts had nearly all tracks headed east but that all of the mainstream the news reports paid unusually heavy attention to the few outliers which showed the western curve. Over the next few days the majority of the other models came to agree with that western course.
Mark - we were outbound to Florida from the hub of Abaco in June when we heard you squawking on 68 - just arriving from Exumas. Wished we'd have had a chance to stick around and meet and hear some of your stories.