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post #1456 of Old 12-18-2012
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Re: HMS Bounty in trouble...

Originally Posted by casey1999 View Post
Thanks for the video post, I will take a look.

My point is even though Bounty Capt/Crew say they have sailed hurricanes, I do not believe that ship ever encountered hurricane conditions (Sustained winds over 75 mph). This is based on the video that has been posted here of bounty sailing in much less winds and the ship heeling excessively and equipment falling apart (rig and pump systems). I think if Bounty had truly encountered hurricane conditions prior to Sandy, she would have sunk in her first hurricane. Bounty may have sailed near a hurricane, but far enough away to not have hurricane conditions- huge differance.

In any case, if the ship was playing with hurricanes, in my opinion that is not good seamenship.
Yes I have said that there are probably exaggeration in what regards saying the boat was in so many Hurricanes that she would mot care to count. We have here a say: "Where there is smoke there is fire"... and that is a bit what I think. If not Hurricanes it seems evident that the ship sailed many times in very bad weather.....and that is a ship not to be sailed in bad weather, specially if we consider a relatively inexperienced non professional small crew.

I guess that Minnewaska resumed what I think with this statement:

Originally Posted by Minnewaska View Post
The lesson is that anyone could become more risk tolerant if they successfully dodge the bullet on previous attempts. You may win a few hands, but the casino always wins in the end. Could save your life to remember it.
That as I see it, means that if you take significant risks that does not mean that you are going to sink. You can even, if very lucky, get always away with it, but every time you try it once more, probability laws says that your chance of getting away is becoming smaller.

On other hand, and contradicting this smaller change of getting away, one that has gotten away many times start to believe that is chances of getting away are bigger and not smaller as they are in reality.

This can give a very dangerous sense of confidence that is not supported by reality. I guess this is a valuable lesson for all of us. Certainly it is for me.



Last edited by PCP; 12-18-2012 at 01:34 PM.
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