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I don't have a link, but I was under the impression that the capsize ratio of the 23.5 water ballast was the same as the comparable Hunter with a keel. That's assuming that you leave the swing keel down, which you are supposed to do anyway.
The water ballast is carried higher than keel weight, which makes the boat more intially tender, but I believe that it's ultimate stability is the same. If someone has contrary info, please post.
Now whether to sail on a Great Lake with only a 23-foot boat of any type; that's another question. Certainly that is not a big enough boat to handle any serious weather. It should be considered a fair weather day-sailer only.