Buying new boats in this economic environment? - Page 3 - SailNet Community
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post #21 of 26 Old 02-09-2009
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Well

I think that many 401K type people have lost so much of there savings and now have it fresh in there minds how fast things can get BAD, that even if we recovered in a year it will take much longer for people to feel comfortable enough to commit to a BIG ticket item for that they WANT but dont NEED


And buying things we WANT on borrowed money is the root cause of the mess

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post #22 of 26 Old 02-09-2009
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YD, Second quarter of 10 isn't that far away. I don't know your price range but new boats would require pulling the trigger now and used is about 4 months from offer to close. My situation is that I need a boat right now like I need VD but sometimes the opportunity is too good to pass up. (analogy, you get screwed with both)

One example of taking advantage of a market is Henry Ford. People think he became rich from selling cars, which he did. But his real wealth came during the depression when he bought the complete pipeline of assets needed to make a car for pennys on the dollar. This hopefully will be as close as we come to a depression in my lifetime and when opertunity knocks, I'm answering.
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post #23 of 26 Old 02-09-2009
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You can't always get what you want
You can't always get what you want
You can't always get what you want
But if you try sometimes you might find
You get what you need
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post #24 of 26 Old 02-09-2009
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One of the main reasons to buy new is that when things break (and they do, believe me), someone else fixes them. That may not be the case in the current environment.

You find that most dealers handle the warranty claims and many dealers may not be around if things don't change soon. Of course, the warranty goes through the manufacturer, but even they may struggle to get their parts from other companies if they are going broke. Remember, a sailboat is 99% other peoples products. And why buy new if you have to turn around and put it on yourself?? You will find that a new boat WILL have problems... period. Many of these things seem to want to break in the first 90 days if they are going to fail.

The other benefit of buying new is that you know what has been done to your boat, and what has not. Assuming what you get is as good of a product as the boat before it, that should be fine. However, I doubt any of us know what to expect to be coming out of these companies anymore.

I bet you would be fine with a beneteau or a Catalina. They probably have enough resources and finances to see through these things longer than most. More specialty builders may have more of a problem as their customer base (and likely total income) is less. As far as the Hinkleys/Swan's of the world... I have always wondered if they would even know there is a bad economy. I honestly do not know.

The used market is actually doing pretty well right now. I know several Catalinas and apparently Bene's are holding or increasing their value right now. Depends on the models, I guess.

My theory on boats and te future... it is worth what you are about to pay for it:

I believe this year and next will see massive failures of boat companies, suppliers, third party manufacturers and others. I think a massive percentage of the dealers will go out of business. I think more now than ever, those companies that survive will directly market their boats to control their own costs.

I suspect that in 12 months you will see massvie numbers of boats on the market that were repo'd by the banks. THe banks will offer to sell them for cut rate prices and will offer them for LESS than they have in them... maybe much less. However, I believe that many of these boats will be severly neglected and serious need of maintenance. I mean come on, if you are going to let your boat go to repo, you certainly are not going to be changing the oil every 100 hours!! SO I believe it will be "Buyer Beware" on these boats.

I believe that many of the best boats will be the used boats that are directly sold by the seller or maybe broker. They will cost more than the repo'd boats of the banks, but in much better shape. They will cost a bit less than the new boats coming off the line directly from the manufacturers, but they will be better made and in the long run a better value. I think these boats will be harder to find but will see it through the economic crisis and beyond.

Those are my thoughts. But then again, I thought the Cowboys would go to the Superbowl, so my predictions have not been great lately!!!

Brian

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post #25 of 26 Old 02-09-2009
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Originally Posted by yellowwducky View Post
Do you think builders are sitting on large amounts of inventory though Dan? I am not sure how the business works but I would think right now that without an order you wouldn't just be rattling off boats without orders. Sure you would make your show versions to get to the different venues but would there be piles of boats sitting in stock at Lagoon or Hanse or whoever?
Sorry for the delayed response.

Dealers DEFINITELY hold inventory. Most manufacturers require the dealers to hold a certain number of boats in various models in inventory. Believe me, go to a new boat dealer of any production line, and they have new boats in inventory. Note that I'm speaking of monohulls; I'm not sure if the multihull dealers work the same way.

And CD, Cowboys??!!! Aren't you in Texan country down there?

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post #26 of 26 Old 02-10-2009 Thread Starter
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My thought is trigger pulling lets say April 2010. Budgeting 8-12 months for a build gives me time to flog stuff, cut leases, keep on with lessons and when its complete, be pretty much lined up for setting off early 2011.

Of course, plans are just that but at the moment, that is what we are thinking. My hunch is I would still be thinking new or near new - we would be looking for a cat so 15-20 year old boats fully depreciated just are not really even available as much of an option. That, and I doubt the SO wants to get involved with that kind of a project.

So far, not having been on any I hasten to add, the boats I think of as candidates so far would be things like Outremer 49, Catana 4?, Atlantic 42 or 48, Leopards and maybe a FP. None of these are 'major builders' or in the case of Atlantics would be a custom builder. If you put a gun to my head right now, I like the Outremer 49 as the best compromise given my current understanding. ymmv of course!
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