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  #11  
Old 05-18-2009
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Quote:
Originally Posted by camaraderie View Post
Brak...I assumed the strong frontal system which swept the East Coast yesterday would be moving out to sea...but of course, your friend may be out of the danger area. Let's hope for the best. Here is the forecast:

GALE WARNING
.FRONT EXTENDS FROM 40N66W TO 35N73W TO 31N79W. WITHIN 120 NM NW
OF FRONT WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180
NM NW AND 90 NM SE OF FRONT WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 36N68W TO 33N74W TO
31N78W. WITHIN 120 NM NW OF FRONT WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO
19 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM NW OF FRONT WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS
TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 31N TO 34N BETWEEN 71W AND 81W AREA OF E
WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

Bermuda is approximately 32N and 65W.
I see this one in a GRIB data too, it seems to be somewhat more near shore in particular between NC and Florida, whereas it shows relatively calm winds north-northwest of Bermuda. I sure hope so.
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  #12  
Old 05-18-2009
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Called Bermuda radio again - no contact yet.

They don't seem to care a whole lot. I suppose in any case they aren't going to start any search operations for a vessel that can be almost anywhere from their pov. Well, not much to do but to wait.
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Old 05-18-2009
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Brak, I do hope your buddy is ok! Keep us posted
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Old 05-18-2009
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If you *average* 6 knots you're looking at 110 hours for Newport to Bermuda. It's easy to drop well below that if he's out there becalmed and just chilling out for a bit rather than motorsailing... I dunno, I haven't bothered checking the weather between in a while but average wind speed here hasn't been over 23 all month. Low-mid teens forecast for the next week so if he's in the area right now he's not going to be thrashed around.

Says your initial post was 6 days ago... if I take that literally that's 144 hours - starting to get a bit long but not unreasonable if he's keeping the engine off.

A little more about his plans would be helpful. Just chill out and sail? Trying to maintain an average speed? Any idea where he's planning to tie up?
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Old 05-18-2009
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brak View Post
Called Bermuda radio again - no contact yet.

They don't seem to care a whole lot. I suppose in any case they aren't going to start any search operations for a vessel that can be almost anywhere from their pov. Well, not much to do but to wait.
It's not unthinkable that he could take as many as eight or nine days if conditions were unfavorable. I have no idea what the off-shore forecast has been for that patch over the past week, but if he ended up having to spend a day hove-to, or beating to windward for a few days, you wouldn't expect to see him in Bermuda for another day or two.

Tanei Aebi took 12 days to go from Sandy Hook, NJ, to Bermuda -- a somewhat longer distance, but in an arguably much faster boat.

My bet is that he's fine, and his biggest concern is that he might be causing his friends and family to worry about him.
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  #16  
Old 05-18-2009
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnRPollard View Post
It's not unthinkable that he could take as many as eight or nine days if conditions were unfavorable. I have no idea what the off-shore forecast has been for that patch over the past week, but if he ended up having to spend a day hove-to, or beating to windward for a few days, you wouldn't expect to see him in Bermuda for another day or two.

Tanei Aebi took 12 days to go from Sandy Hook, NJ, to Bermuda -- a somewhat longer distance, but in an arguably much faster boat.

My bet is that he's fine, and his biggest concern is that he might be causing his friends and family to worry about him.
I think you may be correct - although the winds were above 35kts when he left, forecast shown that the winds were quite light pretty much the rest of the way - 10-15 kts or less, variable direction (fortunately mostly not on the nose).

He is a kind of a loner (not surprising, considering his choice of transportation method ) and I don't think he has any family. In fact, at this point other than people at the boatyard where he left from (Niemiec marine) and myself there isn't anyone directly informed about his plan.

He didn't ask or authorize me to contact anyone either, he is a very self-sufficient fellow, but I figured I'll do it anyway - just in case (I hope he'll forgive me in time ) Not to raise alarm, too early for that, but its always worth making information available early rather than late, get people in the loop.

As far as the time goes, I spoke to him at about 8pm on Monday the 11th, he was at the exit from Buzzards Bay at that point. He's supposed to sail directly from there to Bermuda. In Bermuda he would take a short break and weather permitting the next destination is Virgin Islands (likely US). There I was supposed to meet him and we were planning to sail to Curacao - he's got a new job there. So, while the trip was not completely scheduled to the hour, he was somewhat on a "clock" and isn't likely to take any detours.

P.S. I rechecked my call record and it was 8pm on the 11th actually, not sure why I thought otherwise.

Last edited by brak; 05-18-2009 at 03:20 PM.
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Old 05-18-2009
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Seven or eight days isn't unreasonable at all. It took me 4-1/2 days from Hampton, Virginia, which is about the same distance, but we were fully crewed, and the wind was blowing pretty good (well, more than good) pretty much the whole distance. Sailing solo, he's going to be a lot more conservative with how much canvas he has up, especially at night.
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Old 05-18-2009
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When you say he planned to sail "directly there", we can assume he was not sailing coastal hops. He may, however, have planned something other than a straightline run. Did you discuss where he planned to cross the gulf stream? Was he watching it's forecast location? Did he plan to cross at a right angle? That might give a somewhat better idea as to his possible location and the weather he has and is possibly encountering.
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Old 05-18-2009
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blowinstink View Post
When you say he planned to sail "directly there", we can assume he was not sailing coastal hops. He may, however, have planned something other than a straightline run. Did you discuss where he planned to cross the gulf stream? Was he watching it's forecast location? Did he plan to cross at a right angle? That might give a somewhat better idea as to his possible location and the weather he has and is possibly encountering.
He planned quite literally a straight rhumb line run unless he decided to do something else on the way. I know he was watching the forecast, winds were relatively calm all week.
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Old 05-18-2009
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Depending on the winds, going straight there may not be wise, as trying to cross the Gulf Stream current with a northerly wind can be very treacherous.
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