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  #21  
Old 05-18-2009
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sailingdog View Post
Depending on the winds, going straight there may not be wise, as trying to cross the Gulf Stream current with a northerly wind can be very treacherous.
True, but the winds though variable were primarily out of the southerly direction the first part of the week. We were specifically watching for the wind without northerly component.
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  #22  
Old 05-18-2009
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"He's going in a straight line, ...I measure 625 nm in a straight line"

Not unless he has a motor boat. Remember, the wind is usually coming form the wrong direction and if he has to tack all the way, 625 miles becomes 625 times 1.4 (angling off for the tacks) or 875 miles for the shortest course run.

If he's in a 33' boat and presumably running fairly slow (and somewhat off course) at night or whenever he sleeps? Could easily exceed 900 miles at an average of 4-5 knots...225 hours or ten days run, and that's without any problems from weather or anything else. Like standing off for daylight, instead of trying to enter Bermuda at night.

So without knowing him, or the boat, or checking the wx and stream...I'd say ten days would be time to worry. Nine days would be time to start getting information together and confirming who to call at the USCG if he didn't show up on the tenth day. (Assuming he had provisions & water for 10+ days.) Did he file a specific float plan with you? With intended course and speed, etc?
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  #23  
Old 05-18-2009
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hellosailor View Post
"He's going in a straight line, ...I measure 625 nm in a straight line"

Not unless he has a motor boat. Remember, the wind is usually coming form the wrong direction and if he has to tack all the way, 625 miles becomes 625 times 1.4 (angling off for the tacks) or 875 miles for the shortest course run.
It is all true, however the wind was not really a headwind - at least it was not from Monday until about Friday or so. Here is the GRIB picture from Monday and the one from Wednesday (one data point, midnight of that day).


Monday


Wednesday

The winds are SE during the early part of the track, turning NE later. Not much of the "on the nose" component, so there shouldn't be a need for tacking.
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  #24  
Old 05-18-2009
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Brak—

If those are the wind diagrams...most of his track had northerly winds...and that would have made a gulf stream current crossing less than fun.
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Originally Posted by brak View Post
It is all true, however the wind was not really a headwind - at least it was not from Monday until about Friday or so. Here is the GRIB picture from Monday and the one from Wednesday (one data point, midnight of that day).


Monday


Wednesday

The winds are SE during the early part of the track, turning NE later. Not much of the "on the nose" component, so there shouldn't be a need for tacking.
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Old 05-18-2009
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sailingdog View Post
Brak—

If those are the wind diagrams...most of his track had northerly winds...and that would have made a gulf stream current crossing less than fun.
Yes, you are right - now that I look at them, they are quite northerly, at least early in the track/week (turning sout/east later). I revisited all the wind charts (for each day last week) and they do look similar to these two. Well, at least the winds are not too high, I suppose.
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Brak—

He may have changed course to try and get a more favorable set of conditions for crossing the Gulf Stream... and that could have added a considerable bit of distance to his passage.
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  #27  
Old 05-18-2009
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I suppose you could also place a call to the Royal Bermuda YC (or any other destination in Bermuda) and ask them if any yachts have arrived from New England in the past few days, and reported on how long it took them or what conditions were. Should be a cheap call if you use Skype or other discount telephony.
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  #28  
Old 05-19-2009
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Another thought I had last night was that if he encountered such unfavorable conditions at the outset, he may well have turned tail and ducked in along the coast for a few days, to wait for more favorable conditions. He might have sat for a couple days at anchor waiting for better weather and tinkering on the boat before finally departing for good.

If he keeps to himself as much as you indicated, he probably wouldn't have felt compelled to tell anyone.
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Old 05-19-2009
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no worries all, he just got to Bermuda. straight line as expected thanks all for your attention and interest!
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Old 05-19-2009
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That's great news

That is good to hear. Do you think that you or he could post a summary of the trip? It would be great to hear how those weather charts translated into conditions for his crossing and how the decision to take a straight line played out. Also interested in his thoughts on the HR Monsoon after his first offshore experience with her. I am always very interested in reading accounts of singlehanded bermuda voyages.

Thanks.
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