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  #111  
Old 01-24-2014
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Re: Husband killed as he defends his wife from yacht robbers in St Lucia

VT,

You ought to publish this, not just sailing magazines, but larger news outlets.

Regards,
Brad
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  #112  
Old 01-24-2014
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Re: Husband killed as he defends his wife from yacht robbers in St Lucia

I have data from noonsite and Embassy crime reports too.....
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  #113  
Old 01-24-2014
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Re: Husband killed as he defends his wife from yacht robbers in St Lucia

VT,

Did you mean "murders per 100 miles of coastline" or "murders per 1,000 miles of coastline"? Having 4 murders per mile of coastline seems high.

Also, is there anyway you can eliminate inland murders -- say murders more than 100 miles form the coast? Threats are usually very geographical.

Regards,
Brad
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  #114  
Old 01-25-2014
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Re: Husband killed as he defends his wife from yacht robbers in St Lucia

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bene505 View Post
VT,

Did you mean "murders per 100 miles of coastline" or "murders per 1,000 miles of coastline"? Having 4 murders per mile of coastline seems high.

Also, is there anyway you can eliminate inland murders -- say murders more than 100 miles form the coast? Threats are usually very geographical.

Regards,
Brad
To take the Dominican Republic, my very crude regression indicates about 3000 homicides in 2014. With a population of 9,745,000, that's 30 per 100,000.

Now, it has an area of 18,704 square miles, and a coastline of 800 miles. That's 0.16 homicides per square mile per year.

The coastline number is a correction for islands chains etc. It's basically saying that if all the homicides occurred on the coast, there would be 4 per mile per year. This, of course, would not happen, it serves only to provide a corrective number to compare countries in the Caribbean to each other.
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  #115  
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Re: Husband killed as he defends his wife from yacht robbers in St Lucia

Well, here is my thinking:
The Safest and Most Dangerous Caribbean Islands ? sailingwithkids.net
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  #116  
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Re: Husband killed as he defends his wife from yacht robbers in St Lucia

I'd think a factor that took into account the width of the shoreline would be appropriate. Maybe average the murders/shoreline feet and the murders/square mile.

Why? Because just going by shoreline compresses inland murders right up onto the beach. It assumes that all murders happen on the beach, which is obviously not the case.

The "area shoreline" method gets you a little closer to the risk, I'd think.

Regards,
Brad
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  #117  
Old 01-25-2014
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Re: Husband killed as he defends his wife from yacht robbers in St Lucia

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Originally Posted by JonEisberg View Post
Hmmm, seems a bit of an odd conclusion to draw, when the only post that has overtly taken a position re the choice for or against the carrying of firearms (#84), has come from the "pro-gun" side of the fence... :-)
Snowball is getting bigger. Already we see "off topic" remarks. I have to admit I have been off topic quite a bit in the past and I will try to refrain from doing it again since it really goes nowhere. Definitely a dividing line between those who carry and everyone else. It does not take much to make a thread go totally off topic when the human condition is under discussion.

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Last edited by jerryrlitton; 01-25-2014 at 04:06 AM.
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  #118  
Old 01-25-2014
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Re: Husband killed as he defends his wife from yacht robbers in St Lucia

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You make a good point that statistics can be viewed in a lot of different ways by a lot of different people.

It's better to live in a place with the highest murder rate in the world, when nothing happens to you, than it is to live in the place with the lowest murder rate in the world, when something does.

I used to work for a US federal law enforcement agency. We had about 6000 agents. One year, 1994, we had six agents killed. In other words, that year, I had a statistical chance of 1 in 1000 of being killed. I barely knew two of the. It would not be fair to say that either of them was a close friend. It didn't affect my life as no one tried to kill me.

The year before, 1993, though, we only had one agent out of 6000 killed. Again, I knew him, but not that well, although it happened in the same office I was in. And, so I only had a one in 6000 chance of being killed that year. However that year, I was involved in a shooting and someone tried very hard to kill me.

So really, what was the more dangerous year in my life? 1993 or 1994? The worst statistical probability year, or what really happened?

I suspect it's the same way we all look at statistics, in our regular life, and when cruising. Until it happens to us, or someone we know well, it really doesn't register or matter.

In other words, I would probably take reports like what happened to these cruisers, more to heart when making cruising decision, than I would be to look at statistics. That may not be mathematically logical, but it is human nature.
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  #119  
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Re: Husband killed as he defends his wife from yacht robbers in St Lucia

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Originally Posted by vtsailguy View Post
Well, that's an interesting analysis, I suppose, but the overall conclusions are still so general as to be of little value to most cruising sailors... I don't think they come remotely close in value to what you dismiss as "anecdotal" reports via the Coconut Telegraph, and collated in sources such as Noonsite, and the Caribbean Safety & Security Net...

These islands are like everywhere else, some portions of them are less dangerous than others. Jamaica, for example (another place I won't ever be taking my own boat back to), can be one of the more dangerous countries in the Caribbean basin, and IMHO cruising the south coast or in the vicinity of Kingston would entail a considerable amount of risk... And yet, one can be completely safe ensconced within the Errol Flynn Marina in Port Antonio, or the Montego Bay Yacht Club... And, the 5 days I spent off the very laid-back beaches of Negril, usually anchored right next to the local police boat right in front of the Hedonism II resort, I've never felt more relaxed and generally safer anywhere else outside of the Bahamas...

One of the saddest aspects of this tragedy, is that the risk of spending the night in Vieux-Fort has been well documented, and should have been well known to any cruiser 'on the ground' in St Lucia. There have been brazen recent burglaries reported in DAYTIME, for instance... Now, we still know few details of this incident, and I certainly don't want to stray into second-guessing/blaming the victims territory here, but there would have been little excuse for any savvy cruiser to be unaware of the risk of staying there overnight, and to weigh the options of perhaps departing and heaving-to in the lee of the island for the night, or backtracking to Soufriere, or standing an anchor watch throughout the night, and so on... Bottom line is, the Coconut Telegraph is always gonna be BY FAR the most current and most useful source of information in any evaluation of where one might need to maintain a heightened awareness, and be extra-vigilant, or avoid completely...

All of this reinforces the pity that Cuba remains off limits for most American cruisers, there is probably no safer place for visitors to any country in all of the Caribbean basin, by a considerable margin...



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  #120  
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Re: Husband killed as he defends his wife from yacht robbers in St Lucia

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So you can bring your shotgun to the Bahamas? That is excellent. I didn't know that.

Regards,
Brad
Well, I believe there are restrictions on certain types of firearms that one can bring, you'd have to check on that... They must be "secured" aboard your boat, and every bit of ammunition must be accounted for, and so on. And, if you leave your boat in the Bahamas and return to the States by air for any time, you're required to place your weapons in the custody of the local officials, though I'm guessing this is probably not always done...

I've always thought that a major component of the fact that so many American cruisers in the Bahamas never get beyond Georgetown - AKA 'Chicken Harbor' - is that by heading further south, the next stops of the Turks & Caicos, then the DR, require one to declare and surrender their weapons for the duration of their stay in the country (beyond 24 hrs in the case of the T&C)
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