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  #21  
Old 04-03-2014
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Re: What would you do you are off Hatteras ?

It looks like a variable mix of fronts out about 48 hours. Think I'd avoid being off Hatteras or going around Frying Pan during that time frame. Too much uncertainty. Out 96 hrs., it looks like a high pressure system moving in. That may well put a north component in the wind. Just my opinion but I'd be thinking in terms of short hops up the coast, waiting for weather windows rather than getting committed far offshore this time of the year. Interesting advice you're getting but I'd err on the side of caution in those waters.
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Old 04-03-2014
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Re: What would you do you are off Hatteras ?

I am seriously not trying to be an interwebs troll, but you have no idea what you are talking about.
30-40 knots of wind is serious business when dealing with a large area of shoals, 3,000 miles of fetch, and a swift flowing current. I have a few thousand miles of offshore experience and have sailed through a hurricane. I would be VERY scared to be caught off Hatteras in a Northeaster with 30 to 40 knots

Now wind and current on the stern as in that forecast is sailing heaven. My boat would be FLYING up the stream towards home likley turning in 200+ mile days. The issue is the potential for that to change and put you in the perfect trap - the same one that has been killing ships and men since the 1400s.

* btw, it wasn't near Hatteras thank God, but crossing the stream with wind against current produced an effect we called the "toilet bowl". Within the space of 5 minutes we took a ton of green water from port, starboard, and aft.

Quote:
Originally Posted by blt2ski View Post
Someone is worried about a 50-60+ foot boat in 30-40 knot winds? Going with the wind no less!?!?!?! Some folks would have a chute up planing in the 20+ knot range! Could be fun in my 30' boat frankly. I hit 11 one time with a full main and 110 up. She does really well with a double up in 30+, I have to say that 11 was a hoot. Was doing 7-10+ that day with 30-40 knots of wind. Hoot of a down wind run.

Yeah the ocean is a bit bigger waved than here in puget sound......but still, those winds would be normal in Scotland! or some other places. Enjoy the downwind/current run would be my saying on this......Too bad I am on the left coast at the moment......

marty
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Last edited by Coquina; 04-03-2014 at 10:09 AM.
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  #23  
Old 04-03-2014
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Re: What would you do you are off Hatteras ?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Coquina View Post
I am seriously not trying to be an interwebs troll, but you have no idea what you are talking about.
30-40 knots of wind is serious business when dealing with a large area of shoals, 3,000 miles of fetch, and a swift flowing current. I have a few thousand miles of offshore experience and have sailed through a hurricane. I would be VERY scared to be caught off Hatteras in a Northeaster with 30 to 40 knots

Now wind and current on the stern as in that forecast is sailing heaven. My boat would be FLYING up the stream towards home likley turning in 200+ mile days. The issue is the potential for that to change and put you in the perfect trap - the same one that has been killing ships and men since the 1400s.

* btw, it wasn't near Hatteras thank God, but crossing the stream with wind against current produced an effect we called the "toilet bowl". Within the space of 5 minutes we took a ton of green water from port, starboard, and aft.
Indeed! That is the point.
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Old 04-03-2014
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Re: What would you do you are off Hatteras ?

Quote:
Originally Posted by smurphny View Post
It looks like a variable mix of fronts out about 48 hours. Think I'd avoid being off Hatteras or going around Frying Pan during that time frame. Too much uncertainty. Out 96 hrs., it looks like a high pressure system moving in. That may well put a north component in the wind. Just my opinion but I'd be thinking in terms of short hops up the coast, waiting for weather windows rather than getting committed far offshore this time of the year. Interesting advice you're getting but I'd err on the side of caution in those waters.
The northerly wind will definitely be there on Sunday, it seems unavoidable for at least 12 hours. We can position ourselves off the GS on the east side, or we duck in Wilmington.

Thanks everyone's comment. Regardless, I will be prudent. I have confident on my Captain and his boat. Likewise, the Captain respects my input. We always work out our differences based sound practices.
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Old 04-03-2014
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Re: What would you do you are off Hatteras ?

Quote:
Originally Posted by SVAuspicious View Post
In the first place you are missing a LOT of weather information looking at gribs. I've made this speech before so I'll shorten it - the GFS computer model that generates gribs smooths over barometric discountinuities like fronts. See my aggregation of synoptic charts here.
It is just because I only posted the GRIBS from Passageweather on my post, it does not signal that this is the only sources I use. Color GRIB is colorful and catchy. But in all my iDevices, I have link to all weather maps.

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_96hrbw.gif
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_96hrwind_wave.gif
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_96hr500bw.gif


Quote:
Note that there is an occluded front stalled behind a mature low that dissipates over the weekend. That means thunderstorms in most cases. As the mature low dissipates the occluded front becomes a cold front and gets dragged along by the big low over the northeast which is likely to mean a significant wind shift completely glossed over in the gribs.

If you head offshore at 045T from FLL in SElys by midday on Friday, watch sea temperature to find the middle of the stream, the cold front will pass over you Sunday(ish) with the usual wind shifts. Really shouldn't be a problem on a big boat. Keep the boat moving and watch the radar. If the front moves fast or you are slow you may have to move East out of the Gulf Stream in anticipation of the wind shift - I don't like to give up the boost earlier than I have to.

As the high moves in behind the front you'll have light air for a while - all the more reason to be in the heart of the Gulf Stream.
This makes sense and is applicable in many situations.

Quote:
By the way, if you take the path espoused by others earlier in this thread and stay nearer shore watch for counter currents. You can really get knocked inshore. I'd go Gulf Stream center and out.
That is my concern too. I would rather be lonely in the middle of nowhere than seeing land.

All points are taken and understood.
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  #26  
Old 04-03-2014
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Re: What would you do you are off Hatteras ?

Have a great trip! I'm jealous.
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Old 04-03-2014
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Re: What would you do you are off Hatteras ?

Quote:
Originally Posted by rockDAWG View Post
The northerly wind will definitely be there on Sunday, it seems unavoidable for at least 12 hours. We can position ourselves off the GS on the east side, or we duck in Wilmington.
Don't be a wooos! Be in the Gulf Stream, but close to the edge. Then make the decision when the change comes.

Yes, by the gribs only, (i am too lazy to really work it out ) you may have 12 hours of NE, but how many hours of that are over 20 knots?

All you can do is have some options planned but assess it when you are out there.

How accurate do you think you can plot the western wall of the GS? Its much easier than the east side which isnt so much a wall but a slower fading, isnt it?
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  #28  
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Re: What would you do you are off Hatteras ?

Quote:
Originally Posted by rockDAWG View Post
The northerly wind will definitely be there on Sunday, it seems unavoidable for at least 12 hours. We can position ourselves off the GS on the east side, or we duck in Wilmington.
Seems pretty optimistic at this point, to think that 72 hours from now that will turn out to be entirely accurate...

Just a friendly reminder, although it seems as if winter is finally over here on the East coast, this can still be a VERY volatile time of the year anywhere in the vicinity of Hatteras, the most difficult time of the year to forecast, IMHO. I'd sooner have to take my chances going around Hatteras in January, than in March, or some years in April...

There have been some very serious storms that have come out of nowhere in recent years in the spring in that part of the North Atlantic...

The writer Michael Tougias has made a living writing about them, and the yachts that were lost:

Overboard!: A True Blue-water Odyssey of Disaster and Survival: Michael J. Tougias: 9781439145753: Amazon.com: Books Overboard!: A True Blue-water Odyssey of Disaster and Survival: Michael J. Tougias: 9781439145753: Amazon.com: Books




A Storm Too Soon: A True Story of Disaster, Survival and an Incredible Rescue: Michael J. Tougias: 9781451683349: Amazon.com: Books A Storm Too Soon: A True Story of Disaster, Survival and an Incredible Rescue: Michael J. Tougias: 9781451683349: Amazon.com: Books



During the storm which claimed the life of the skipper of ALMESIAN, I was hunkered down in my little tub behind a Mexican restaurant the Dismal Swamp Canal... The weather even in there was pretty ferocious, I can't imagine what it was like offshore...

I had just left Lauderdale with a powerboat at the time the second "Storm Too Soon" developed, literally overnight... Only made it to Ft Pierce before having to duck back inside. The 56' Little Harbor FLYING COLOURS, enroute to the Chesapeake from the islands with a professional crew, disappeared without a trace... I finally got back outside from Charleston to Beaufort, and that afternoon running from Frying Pan up to Morehead, the ocean was literally carpeted with styrofoam packing, from a ship that had lost a few dozen containers... the next day, I had a look at Oregon Inlet, the swell was still rolling, bigtime... So I bit the bullet and turned around, staying inside to Norfolk, one of the few times I ever thought Oregon might be do-able, but wasn't...

And that was about a month later than now... So, just sayin'... :-)
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Last edited by JonEisberg; 04-03-2014 at 04:26 PM.
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  #29  
Old 04-03-2014
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Re: What would you do you are off Hatteras ?

Thanks Jon, all understood. I will keep the captain and his boat safe, his wife told me so.

Just make a reservation at

South Harbour Village Marina
4909 Fish Factory Rd
Southport, NC 28461
United States (US)
910-454-7486 (Fax: 910-457-6930)

Their Draft is 12 feet in their transient dock, so it is perfect. Southport Marina has only 8 ft draft at low tide. They sent me to South Harbour Village Marina. Both marinas were very nice and accommodating on the phone.

I read A storm too Soon when it was just come out. Excellent reading and learn a lot and give me a sense what to expect.
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Old 04-03-2014
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Re: What would you do you are off Hatteras ?

Quote:
Originally Posted by MarkofSeaLife View Post
Don't be a wooos! Be in the Gulf Stream, but close to the edge. Then make the decision when the change comes.

Yes, by the gribs only, (i am too lazy to really work it out ) you may have 12 hours of NE, but how many hours of that are over 20 knots?

All you can do is have some options planned but assess it when you are out there.

How accurate do you think you can plot the western wall of the GS? Its much easier than the east side which isnt so much a wall but a slower fading, isnt it?
The biggest complain about FRC for me is there is no sea water thermometer installed to tell me if we are in GS.

I do bring my portable IR thermometer with me, but not sure how good for this type of reading. I guess if the sea state is like water in the washing machine with the north wind, we will know we are in the GS. .... run.... hahaha.
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