Why All the Absurd Circumnavigation Threads? - Page 18 - SailNet Community
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post #171 of 227 Old 05-07-2014
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Re: Why All the Absurd Circumnavigation Threads?

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Here's a different perspective..
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post #172 of 227 Old 05-07-2014
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Re: Why All the Absurd Circumnavigation Threads?

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post #173 of 227 Old 05-07-2014
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Re: Why All the Absurd Circumnavigation Threads?

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You will need at least one for your trip North. I could send you my spare?
oh pshaw .... next you'll be telling me you have learnt not only how to use two wheels but you have them at both ends of the axle.

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post #174 of 227 Old 05-09-2014
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Re: Why All the Absurd Circumnavigation Threads?

Digital media has raised awareness of SAR events. Technology has resulted in greatly improved emergency notifications and responses. That does not mean that circumnavigators are a burden to society.

And people who are just chatting on forums and dreaming about it, we're only wasting a byte or two....

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Originally Posted by jameswilson29 View Post
I am not so sure about the existence of SAR data relevant to this particular discussion, involving these specifics:

offshore
recreational
sailboats

The USCG publishes SARS statistics, which I believe includes marine, aviation and PLB, commercial and recreational, offshore and inland, sailboats and powerboats. I would agree, in general, boating is safer and there are fewer overall SARs for the USCG. The general decline in gross numbers, which might simply reflect the improved safety of all vessels, inland boater safety education, and improvements in communications, do not necessarily reflect a specific trend in offshore, recreational sailboats.

(Knowing the government and the impulse to report favorably on an agency's success, I would also assume there have been changes in definitions, response methods and timing, and data gathering that have influenced how many SARs are reported, just as almost every other government statistic has been reworked. e.g. unemployment statistics, GDP, inflation, COLA, etc. We live in a golden age of successful govt.)

My hat is off to the brave members of the USCG SAR, who do a great job for us all.
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post #175 of 227 Old 05-10-2014
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Re: Why All the Absurd Circumnavigation Threads?

"but I want to see the actual data. It must be available."
Statistics are not kept of all events. Nor are statistics gathered, centralized, or standardized for all events. That applies to SAR, cellphone robberies, and drunks breaking their toes against toilets in the middle of the night, pretty much equally. (Really, ask at any hospital ER. Indoor plumbing and alcohol are a really dangerous mix!)

Consider if you will, the "simple" concept of examining USCG statistics for SAR missions. Ooops, that's already going to be a bad count, since there are National Guard SAR units on both coasts--such as the one that rescued Rebel Heart recently. That's not a USCG operation, that's a military SAR mission. Odds are, it wouldn't be part of the same statistics.

Little things like that (and how many of us even knew the US military had separate SAR operations on both coasts? Not to mention, various state police, harbor patrols, and other agencies?) tend to make statistics very misleading, unless someone has taken great care to standardize and centralize the data. Or, someone takes even greater care trying to compile it.

Then there are incidents like the seasick crew that got on a satphone and called in a USCG SAR--without the sailboat's owner/skipper even knowing about it. Is that a SAR? When the captain of the vessel is unaware of the call?

Someone might have the stats. You could try USSA and the USCG for leads, but you may have to roll up your sleeves. And then...well, would the Mexican Navy be operating off Baja? And the Bahamian Defense Force (let's not forget, the Cubans have also made rescues) on the other coast?

Roll up your sleeves, there's probably a magazine article to be written once you get done.
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post #176 of 227 Old 05-10-2014
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Re: Why All the Absurd Circumnavigation Threads?

I have not seen even one. Guess I cant answer the question.
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post #177 of 227 Old 05-10-2014
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Re: Why All the Absurd Circumnavigation Threads?

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Originally Posted by hellosailor View Post
"but I want to see the actual data. It must be available."
HS, my point in asking for the data is that James is/was making some assertions regarding the apparent increase in boaters getting into trouble, most specifically those who are ill-prepared to be out there. If you're going to make these claims then some basic data would be useful.

Even if all the data is not available from all possible sources, surely some sort of statistical support for this claim is required. How about just looking at just one source: USCG, for example. Some evidence ... any evidence, would be useful.

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post #178 of 227 Old 05-10-2014
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Re: Why All the Absurd Circumnavigation Threads?

So, I spent about 5 minutes doing the most basic of searches using DuckDuckGo (my preferred general search tool). I easily came up with a whole database of USCG Accident Statistics (a fascinating tool), and more broader stats from COSPAS-SARSAT:


From the global stats you can see a general rise in alerts that COSPAS-SARSAT assisted with, although a rather stable level of alerts where COSPAS-SARSAT was the only responder. I can't interpret this without further analysis, but on the surface this could support James' top-level assertion.

I'm not looking to write an article on all this (although perhaps I should ). If I was then I would take the time to do the analysis. But my very cursory search suggests the data IS available.

I guess my real point is it kinda drives me nuts when unsupported assertions are made about things when data is available, and can actually answer the question. We don't have to guess, to rely on our small anecdotal experiences, or to rely on our gut. For these kinds of question, the answers are available if we take the time to look.
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post #179 of 227 Old 05-10-2014
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Re: Why All the Absurd Circumnavigation Threads?

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Originally Posted by hellosailor View Post
"but I want to see the actual data. It must be available."
Statistics are not kept of all events. Nor are statistics gathered, centralized, or standardized for all events. That applies to SAR, cellphone robberies, and drunks breaking their toes against toilets in the middle of the night, pretty much equally. (Really, ask at any hospital ER. Indoor plumbing and alcohol are a really dangerous mix!)

Consider if you will, the "simple" concept of examining USCG statistics for SAR missions. Ooops, that's already going to be a bad count, since there are National Guard SAR units on both coasts--such as the one that rescued Rebel Heart recently. That's not a USCG operation, that's a military SAR mission. Odds are, it wouldn't be part of the same statistics.

Little things like that (and how many of us even knew the US military had separate SAR operations on both coasts? Not to mention, various state police, harbor patrols, and other agencies?) tend to make statistics very misleading, unless someone has taken great care to standardize and centralize the data. Or, someone takes even greater care trying to compile it.

Then there are incidents like the seasick crew that got on a satphone and called in a USCG SAR--without the sailboat's owner/skipper even knowing about it. Is that a SAR? When the captain of the vessel is unaware of the call?

Someone might have the stats. You could try USSA and the USCG for leads, but you may have to roll up your sleeves. And then...well, would the Mexican Navy be operating off Baja? And the Bahamian Defense Force (let's not forget, the Cubans have also made rescues) on the other coast?

Roll up your sleeves, there's probably a magazine article to be written once you get done.
That's a very good analysis...

I think anyone who doesn't feel there has been an uptick in the frequency of abandonments sailing yachts in the last year or two is either in some sort of denial, or simply hasn't been paying attention :-) It's not that we simply hear about more of these incidents today due to the internet or social media, in my opinion. Now, whether the recent spate of such incidents represents a trend that will continue to rise, or simply a statistical anomaly of the past 2 years, remains to be seen... But, I challenge anyone to point to another time frame where we've seen the frequency of abandonments we've seen in recent memory...

Here's just some of what comes to my mind, I'm sure I'm forgetting some:

2 boats lost in last fall's SDR Rally, of course

The Swan 46 WOLFHOUND near Bermuda

The Canadian CS 36 abandoned after losing a rudder a few days out of the Cape Verdes...

REBEL HEART

Doug Sabbag's TRIUMPH

The Alpha 42 BE GOOD TOO in January

A trimaran off the Texas coast a couple of months ago

That Hunter found abandoned in the Gulf Coast, the YouTube video posted here

The Pearson 323 abandoned enroute to Bermuda and Europe last spring, that eventually fetched up on the beach on Martha's Vineyard

The 32' Aloha abandoned off the Florida Keys this winter, eventually grounded on Singer Island

The 50' Beneteau BLUE PEARL, abandoned after sinking NE of Bermuda 2 weeks ago

3 European sailors rescued near Sable Island last September on passage to the Azores

An AMVER rescue last November after the abandonment of the junk-rigged schooner EASY GO, which departed Nova Scotia bound for the Caribbean

Pretty certain there was at least one abandonment off Oregon/N Calif last fall/winter, can't recall the specifics

Those Polish morons rescued mid-Atlantic attempting to sail from Europe to N America in January 2013, if memory serves

These are just the ones I recall at the moment, given more time I have little doubt I, or others, could add to the list...

Sorry, anyone who thinks these purely 'anecdotal' numbers were being matched 5 or 10 years ago by sailors going to sea for pleasure, then punching out, is dreaming... :-)
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post #180 of 227 Old 05-10-2014
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Re: Why All the Absurd Circumnavigation Threads?

there is a word for it but its not politically correct but basically its the push button masses that go cruising now and any little thing that goes bad, like a bad HAIR DAY is considered rescueable

and distress...

to blame in part is all the new technology that makes it so easy now for people to "follow" you, text while at sea...and basically have internet, tv basically everything you have home out there, now you arent really out there anyways

you are just a call away from help or whatever

the spike is due to this

NOT boat design, not materials, not the weather, global waming, whatever

its cruisers views now on what constitutes an abandon boat scenario that has changed

not in 100 percent of cases but damn high up there

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