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  #191  
Old 05-11-2014
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Re: Why All the Absurd Circumnavigation Threads?

Quote:
Originally Posted by hellosailor View Post
Mike, I agree with you in general but still say statistics will be deceptive.
Oh I fully agree HS, data of any kind does not necessarily provide information. Context, limitations of collection, bias ... all this and much more must be considered. But at least it's a start. It's usually better than individual anecdotal evidence (which IS also useful data).

I guess the reason I'm hanging onto this like a dog with a bone is that the OP's initial posting, and Jon's apparent defence of it (if that's what he was doing), is reaching some rather damning conclusions using pretty scant data. Anecdote, feelings, and a very small list of events over a very short period tells us almost nothing. As a first simple step I think one needs to show that there actually is an increase in SAR events; that it's not just a blip. This information is available.

If there is an increase, then ascribing cause by blaming it on ill-prepared, push-botton sailors is, as I think you're pointing out, a really big stretch. It may be the case, but if you're going to fling blame around then try and support it with something other than your gut feeling.
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Last edited by MikeOReilly; 05-11-2014 at 07:36 PM.
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  #192  
Old 05-11-2014
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Re: Why All the Absurd Circumnavigation Threads?

Well, Since I've been stuck at my desk grading final exams. As a distraction, I've been been trying to find any relevant data, since I'm curious as well.

Total SAR missions are reported and those numbers appear to show a downward trend.

http://www.sarsat.noaa.gov/BMW%20201...BMW_Turner.pdf

http://www.uscg.mil/hq/cg5/cg534/SAR...ts%2064-13.pdf

But as James points out, there's no break-down by vessel or region eg: Recreation, sailboat, east coast

I haven't been able to locate the underlying data just the summary sheets.

The USCG puts out a detailed annual report for all " reported" accidents ( by state) but it's not much help here either.

It certainly seems like there is an uptick of sailboat incidents but digging the data out would probably take serious research if it's even accessible.
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  #193  
Old 05-11-2014
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Re: Why All the Absurd Circumnavigation Threads?

Or better reporting of them.
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  #194  
Old 05-11-2014
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Re: Why All the Absurd Circumnavigation Threads?

Where do you see that sentiment turned against the Russian that sailed on the San Juan 24? I read the end of the main thread and it just said he was towed in. Where can I find out about him announcing his next plans and people regretting helping him?
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  #195  
Old 05-11-2014
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Re: Why All the Absurd Circumnavigation Threads?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tempest View Post
Well, Since I've been stuck at my desk grading final exams. As a distraction, I've been been trying to find any relevant data, since I'm curious as well.

Total SAR missions are reported and those numbers appear to show a downward trend.

http://www.sarsat.noaa.gov/BMW%20201...BMW_Turner.pdf

http://www.uscg.mil/hq/cg5/cg534/SAR...ts%2064-13.pdf

But as James points out, there's no break-down by vessel or region eg: Recreation, sailboat, east coast

I haven't been able to locate the underlying data just the summary sheets.

The USCG puts out a detailed annual report for all " reported" accidents ( by state) but it's not much help here either.

It certainly seems like there is an uptick of sailboat incidents but digging the data out would probably take serious research if it's even accessible.
Thanks Tempest. Just scanning the Summary Statistics, it indicates the number of Cases (whatever that means) peaked in the late 1970s and has been on a steady decline ever since. Using this data one could suggest boaters are getting increasingly safer, especially given the massive increase in boat numbers. Perhaps boaters today are far better seamen than in days gone by. Or perhaps the technology I often disdain IS making boating safer.

A scan through the USCG accident statistics shows a roughly stable number of incidents for "axillary sailboat" from 2005 to 2012. Once again, this apparent rise in SAR events connected to ill-prepared cruisers does not appear to be showing up in the data.

This is far from conclusive. This data is not very focused. The phenomena James and Jon point to could still exist. However, the evidence presented here does not support their conclusion.
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  #196  
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Re: Why All the Absurd Circumnavigation Threads?

Mike,

I don't think that the CG accident data can be tied to the kind of SAR missions being discussed here. I believe their accident data is derived from " reported" accidents that involve damages ( generally over $2,000.) and or deaths. I don't think A vessel towed in from sea or abandoned would appear in that data ( I could be wrong).

I also think the "ticking up" that we're discussing is still a such a small, discreet number relative to the total number of recreational boats that it's probably not going to show up in summary reports. Is it 15 rescues vs 10? 30 vs 15? etc Anecdotal, might be the best we get. I do tend to agree with Jon, that it sure seems like the numbers have ticked up.
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  #197  
Old 05-11-2014
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Re: Why All the Absurd Circumnavigation Threads?

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeOReilly View Post
Oh I fully agree HS, data of any kind does not necessarily provide information. Context, limitations of collection, bias ... all this and much more must be considered. But at least it's a start. It's usually better than individual anecdotal evidence (which IS also useful data).

I guess the reason I'm hanging onto this like a dog with a bone is that the OP's initial posting, and Jon's apparent defence of it (if that's what he was doing), is reaching some rather damning conclusions using pretty scant data. Anecdote, feelings, and a very small list of events over a very short period tells us almost nothing. As a first simple step I think one needs to show that there actually is an increase in SAR events; that it's not just a blip. This information is available.
This is pretty funny... Not so so long ago, when I was butting heads with Smackdaddy in the "Rallies Gone Wrong" thread, seems I was pretty much the only one who bothered to research the actual experience level of the skippers who got into trouble, and actually DEFENDED them against the implication that inexperience likely contributed to the problems they encountered during the SDR:

Rallies Gone Wrong

And now in this thread, after being pretty much the only one who has offered any factual support of my OPINION that we've recently seen a spike in offshore abandonments/rescues, my litany of over a dozen such incidents in recent memory is dismissed as being merely "anecdotal", and it is suggested that I need to dredge up additional "data" before my opinion can be legitimized... :-)

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeOReilly View Post
If there is an increase, then ascribing cause by blaming it on ill-prepared, push-botton sailors is, as I think you're pointing out, a really big stretch. It may be the case, but if you're going to fling blame around then try and support it with something other than your gut feeling.
OK, so if I were to select a single incident of the dozen or more I cited that was likely due to poor preparation/inexperience, it would be tha abandonment of the Pearson 362 RUNNING FREE that eventually came ashore on Marthas' Vineyard... Reading the guy's blog, it was apparent he was a total newb. For instance, he had tried anchoring the boat only ONCE before setting out across the Atlantic, where he eventually flagged down an AMVER ride 4 or 5 days into the trip...

Now, with what available "data" am I supposed to support my opinion? How does one quantify the impression he had no business being out there to begin with, and that his punching out during his first encounter with 30+ knot winds was probably largely attributable to poor preparation and lack of experience?

Sorry, but I'm going with what my eyes and ears have told me over 35 years of running boats up and down the East coast.... During the past few years, these sort of incidents HAVE happened with greater frequency than before... And, I'm not alone in believing this. I know for a fact, for instance, that one person in a good position to have reached an informed opinion - CRUISING WORLD'S Herb McCormick - would agree...

Don Street, of course, has been beating this drum for years... Then again, what would a guy who's been in the yacht insurance business for close to half a century possibly know about the casualty rates among offshore sailors today? How could his opinion possibly be validated by any sort of "Data"?

:-)
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  #198  
Old 05-11-2014
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Re: Why All the Absurd Circumnavigation Threads?

I agree with you jon...for what its worth I posted that its the new sailors these days and push button crowd that have totally different notions of what sailing and cruising and offshore sailing is

you can see the comments for example regarding epirbs and messengers and tracking devices etc today versus say 10-15 years ago

its amazing how much has changed

before more emphasis was put on the sailor...now more emphasis is put on the gear, and equipment and buttons needed for "safe" cruising

id venture 99 percent of cruisers TODAY are confident that they will be rescued no matter what...so more newbs go sailing and more people that dont respect the sea as they should do go...because they know they will be rescued no matter what no matter where

think about it...

like everest NOW its a sad sad sight to see the absolute never ending line of yuppies and wannabe explorers that climb cause all they need to do is sign a waiver and send over the money...cause they know they will be more easily rescued than say 30 years ago or when sir hillary did it way back when...

this is just me but I BET there will be a day when solo circumnaving the globe(even non stop) will become so easy that many many people will do it, either cause the technology makes it so easy, or you are within minues of a rescue chopper plucking you out or some pods out in the middle of the ocean like small planets out in the galaxy will be ready to open their doors for the quick adventure sailor heading out, an easy save...if you will.

its just a matter of time
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  #199  
Old 05-12-2014
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Re: Why All the Absurd Circumnavigation Threads?

Quote:
Originally Posted by JonEisberg View Post
And now in this thread, after being pretty much the only one who has offered any factual support of my OPINION that we've recently seen a spike in offshore abandonments/rescues, my litany of over a dozen such incidents in recent memory is dismissed as being merely "anecdotal", and it is suggested that I need to dredge up additional "data" before my opinion can be legitimized...
Not everything of value must be statistical in nature. There is a place for qualitative analysis.

We can certainly use statistics to describe the preparation of a boat to go to see with lists of equipment and even services. How to meaningfully apply statistics to the readiness of skipper and crew?

I suggest that Jon's experience makes his analysis of particular events credible.

His perception that offshore SAR events and boat abandonments have increased in recent years could certainly be supported with data-based conclusions. Based on data presented at the most recent meeting of the USCG GMDSS Task Force on which I sit (minutes aren't available yet) it appears that a lot of data is collected in a form that requires manual assessment to draw meaningful conclusions. Getting the raw data might require a FOIA request for the USCG administration to justify the collation expense.
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  #200  
Old 05-12-2014
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Re: Why All the Absurd Circumnavigation Threads?

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Originally Posted by SVAuspicious View Post
Not everything of value must be statistical in nature. There is a place for qualitative analysis.

We can certainly use statistics to describe the preparation of a boat to go to see with lists of equipment and even services. How to meaningfully apply statistics to the readiness of skipper and crew?

I suggest that Jon's experience makes his analysis of particular events credible.
I guess I'm not communicating very clearly. I have never said Jon's experience is invalid, not have I ever said statistical data is the only way to know something. It is well known that human perception and individual observation is usually quite biased. That doesn't mean it's invalid, but we've learned to be skeptical of this kinds of data, which is why science insists on verifiable data. Good gualitative analysis has the same standards.

BTW, being skeptical, and pointing out that this is anecdotal evidence, is not an insult, as you seem to take it Jon. It doesn't invalidate your observations. But unless you're stepping into deity status and claiming infallibility, surely even you would agree that it is worth asking for more supporting evidence (and once again, this is NOT an insult).

I really don't understand why it is such a radical position; to ask for evidence beyond anecdotal data. I feel like we're speaking two different languages. I'm not denigrating anyone. I'm simply asking for further evidence, especially when people are making causal connections to this apparent trend (with a healthy bit of moralizing thrown in, just for good measure).
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Last edited by MikeOReilly; 05-12-2014 at 10:25 AM.
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