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  #21  
Old 06-13-2014
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Re: Should I go?

Here are the conditions as of 13:50 UTC Friday

23 kn gusts, 4.9 ft seas ESE 120 deg. 58 degrees F. falling barometer

NDBC - Station 44013

Tiring trip if he did it.
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  #22  
Old 06-13-2014
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Re: Should I go?

I've made the trip from Boston to Provincetown once, in my 37' Gulfstar. The conditions were almost exactly what is forecast, except I think the wind was slightly more south. I can tell you NOAA underestimated the size of the waves by a good margin... I think they were 10-12' at the furthest point from land. The wind also ended up being slightly stronger. We made excellent time though! I would not have attempted it solo, and there were times on that trip I regretted attempting it at all. After reflecting for a while upon arriving in Provincetown, I decided I'm glad I did it, and it gave me the confidence to handle similar conditions in the future. But definitely not solo, not unless I had a ton more experience doing solo trips (I've never soloed my boat).
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  #23  
Old 06-13-2014
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Re: Should I go?

You cannot really trust NOAA estimates. Judging from the weather fronts coming through and knowing these waters, I would be finding something else to do:-) http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/fax/QDTM10.gif
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  #24  
Old 06-13-2014
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Re: Should I go?

You guys are just too worried. By Sat morning the wind is going to NW 5-10 knots with 2-3' seas and the trip to PT would be a nice broad reach. But Sun it is going to be a N wind at 5 knots and later becoming E at 5 knots.
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  #25  
Old 06-13-2014
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Re: Should I go?

Geeze, you guys are making a lot of noise about the chop. On the Chesapeake Bay, that's all we get! We'd never sail if we waited for the water to smooth out.

I've made plenty of sails like this, solo and with crew on my P30.

However...

- My boat is my own, not a bare-bones club boat. I have safety gear and a tiller pilot. The boat is in excellent repair. SailingFool makes some good points there.

- I am familiar with the waters after time spent crewing on other boats, and sailing my own boat with crew.

"Stepping outside of your comfort zone" in order to grow, is necessary but it is a fine line. You want to push your limits, but not bite off more than you can chew.

Use your best judgement. Watch the forecast and the current weather observations until the last moment. Abort if in doubt. Plan some bail out points in your journey, if any exist.
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  #26  
Old 06-13-2014
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Re: Should I go?

Sometimes we call the "NOAA Man" the "Know-uh-nothing man" because of the accuracy of the forecasts. How well does yours do? Too conservative, too unreliable, or spot on?

I'd suggest that a 33' boat in 4-6 waves, sailing solo, is going to be a long day. And if you have to ask whether it is a good idea, that says you probably shouldn't go, you're not comfortable with it.

Anxiety usually not being a fun way to sail.
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Re: Should I go?

Quote:
Originally Posted by BubbleheadMd View Post
"Stepping outside of your comfort zone" in order to grow, is necessary but it is a fine line. You want to push your limits, but not bite off more than you can chew.
Bubble I'm not poking fun with this post, this sentence is of course completely normal to all of us ... but for some reason I imagined how confusing it might be if the reader was just learning English since it has like 4 different figures of speech in it and it made me laugh.

They'd be like, stepping out of what ? What is a fine line ? Push what ? Why is someone eating ?



Sometimes you just have to be me, I guess. I'm easily entertained.

Btw, I totally agree about the Bay, very choppy.
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  #28  
Old 06-13-2014
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Re: Should I go?

This is not the Chesapeake, it's the N. Atlantic with two low pressure systems being pushed by a high behind them. That's a recipe for ANYTHING to occur. It is not a time to throw the dice and hope the weather cooperates.
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Re: Should I go?

I don't think anyone is saying it can't be done. It's just a long A** day beating into wind and seas. ( right now. 5.6 ft. @ a 4.6 average period) When waiting one day..would give a totally different experience. At 25 I loved beating to windward...now, I'll wait a day... It's all a choice.

People talk about sailing south along the NJ coast...this is exactly what people wait in port for...letting a front pass through and catching the ensuing NW, N and NE winds that follow. This is much the same..
smurphny and Sal Paradise like this.
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Old 06-13-2014
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Re: Should I go?

Agree with some of these guys. If you need to ask you problably shouldn"t go today. North Atlantic can turn ugly fast. Not the worst weather to sail in, but will be a handful solo. Live to fight another day
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