Should I go? - SailNet Community
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post #1 of 37 Old 06-12-2014 Thread Starter
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Should I go?

Had planned to sail from Marblehead to Provincetown this weekend (original plan was to leave Boston) Wanted to leave Friday morning but small craft advisory in effect through Friday night. Here is the forecast: SE winds 10-15kts with gusts up to 20kts. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Patchy fog. Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Visibility 1 NM or less.

I planned on sailing a Cal33 solo. I have sailed in heavy seas and stormy conditions before, but as part of a crew. The wind direction has been North East the last couple of days so I am guessing this is causing the sea conditions, so I am hoping the interval between the waves won't be too bad. The wind will be right on my nose, but I have sailed solo in stronger winds before. My main concern is the fog and visibility. Don't have radar, but a chart plotter/gps.

I am trying to decide whether I should head out. I know its my decision, but hoping can get some info here to help me think it through. I want to get more experience in rough weather conditions. Also if I wait to Saturday the wind is predicted to die down to 5 kts.

Thanks for any input.

Last edited by Slayer; 06-12-2014 at 06:51 PM.
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post #2 of 37 Old 06-12-2014
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Re: Should I go?

I'd ask myself the question: If I didn't have a schedule, would I still want to go, or would I wait ? If the answer is that I would wait, then I would wait.
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post #3 of 37 Old 06-12-2014 Thread Starter
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Re: Should I go?

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Originally Posted by wind_magic View Post
I'd ask myself the question: If I didn't have a schedule, would I still want to go, or would I wait ? If the answer is that I would wait, then I would wait.

Good point. But its not so much the schedule as the loss of wind on Saturday. Also, I want to get more experience solo'ing in rough conditions. Maybe I will head out and if the sea state and weather is too much for me I will turn around and come back in.

Also, if I do go, the wind will be right on my nose and I will have to do some tacking, would it be better to keep in Mass Bay or tack in the other direction out to more open water, or will it not make a difference?

Last edited by Slayer; 06-12-2014 at 06:48 PM.
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post #4 of 37 Old 06-12-2014
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Re: Should I go?

40 miles uphill in that boat solo will be cold and exhausting.
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post #5 of 37 Old 06-12-2014
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Re: Should I go?

As the Brits are fond of saying, “there is no such thing as bad weather, only improper clothing”. By NorCal standards, it doesn’t look too terribly bad, with the possible exception of the thunderstorms. I don’t understand the low visibility thing - are they expecting a lot of rain on Friday? What are the predicted wave periods? If they are at 6 seconds plus, then a bit “bouncy” but still doable (how good is your autohelm?). I don’t have any local knowledge of Mass Bay but I’m assuming starboard is the preferred tack. I’m with you in regards to Saturday. Once that front passes through on Friday, and high fills in, it’s better to be in a harbor sipping a cold one rather than bobbing around dreaming of one. Win lose or draw – let us know next week on what you did.

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post #6 of 37 Old 06-12-2014
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Re: Should I go?

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Originally Posted by Slayer View Post

Thanks for any input.
I thought of it also, but your forecast is out of date. It isn't going to be all that rough out, but unless you want to motor all the way back change your plans.

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post #7 of 37 Old 06-12-2014
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Re: Should I go?

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Here is the forecast: SE winds 10-15kts with gusts up to 20kts. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Patchy fog. Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Visibility 1 NM or less.
Am i missing something? That's rough??? or normal for this area?
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post #8 of 37 Old 06-12-2014
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Re: Should I go?

Personally I'd go for it, 4'-6' aren't bad long as you don't get seasick, seeing how you solo. But don't listen to me, I'm crazy...
Stick to the Mass Bay side so if you decide to bag it, you can duck in somewhere.

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post #9 of 37 Old 06-12-2014
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Re: Should I go?

Go for it, have your safety gear lined up, some easy to eat/reheat meals ready to go. You will know with in an hour or two, if you are up to the up hill beat...continue or you can turn back and reset for another day.

All the best, look forward to an update
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post #10 of 37 Old 06-12-2014
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Re: Should I go?

Your course is almost directly into the wind and seas. The average wave period right now is pretty short 3.8 seconds. Height is 2.3 ft. but the seas will be building. It will be wet and cold. and if you're going to be tacking the mileage goes from 47 or so up into the 60 nm range, so now it's at least a 12 hour day.

Can you do it, of course. I just don't see the training and experience value. You'll have plenty of suffering and pain in your sailing life, that you don't have to go looking for it.

Also, you'll be crossing approach lanes for Boston, if visibility drops to 1 mile or less, without radar or ais, will you be able to monitor the VHF and plot traffic and manage the helm.

Current buoy data NDBC - Station 44013

Sunday looks like the day..for this trip....or sat night in to Sunday
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Last edited by Tempest; 06-12-2014 at 08:10 PM.
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