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Why go out into this *crap*?

6K views 52 replies 25 participants last post by  capta 
#1 ·
I am in the Caribbean.
After the net controllers weather report on our islands VHF radio net this morning I jumped on and said the satellight photo shows large intense cloud all over the eastern Caribbean islands from the BVIs to Trinidad.
It was pissing down rain, not much wind, but that wind from due south.
A bunch of boats then said they were leaving to plug directly into it.

Needless to say the day has been full of squall.

See the photo I just took. It's a color photo.

Would you go out in this? Or stay snug as a bug in a bar?

Remember these are cruisers, no real time constraints.
 

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#2 ·
Last time I left port on a day like that I got a sailing lesson of note. Twelve hours later we found ourselves in a "squash zone" with winds eventually building to a sustained 75kn, gusting 85kn and stayed with us for 36 hours!

Never again.
 
#3 · (Edited)
Mark - I'm in Antigua now, only 80 miles south and I had some rain before noon but it has "only" been overcast since then in mild winds so perhaps those headed south weren't bucking wind and rain all the way. I would have remained in place until tomorrow or the day after - in fact I might sail up and visit you later on this week!

It looks like you are anchored in the only place deep enough for me in there - off Palapa :)
 
#5 · (Edited)
Honestly that picture doesn't look all that bad. But I wouldn't head out to sail into it though. Now it does look like the kind of day that would work itself up to like a 30kt breeze and if I was south going north you betcha I'd be going somewhere. 30kts on a deep reach on 6 foot waves in 80º SURFS UP! I'd be hitting 9 to 14 yeah buddy!
But no I'm up in New England trying to figure out why this y valve is sticking in 40º weather with no idea when I'll get the boat back in the water wondering why I didn't go down there this year!

I hate you guys!

Then again I sailed on this day.
 

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#14 ·
That can be every other day in the summer here in the Northeast. Looks like the sky is brightening to the left. Might be sun and light breeze in an hour. If I saw a sky like that up here, I wouldn't rule out the whole day but probably sit tight for the moment.
 
#20 ·
Honestly, that was exactly the initial thought that came to my mind as well, but I quickly realized that pictures don't really do justice to weather and patterns differ all over the globe. What's ordinary in one place, can be a sign of a serious disturbance to the norm in another.

If you follow weather systems, as opposed to daily weather forecasts, you get to understand the norms for your area. No doubt, Mark has the norm in the StM down by now.
 
#15 ·
Mark
You're in the carribean. I'm looking at rain for a whole week in New England. Only thing holding me back from splashing is topside buff and final coat of bottom paint.
You're looking at some good tunes, maybe eyeing the honeys at the bar, maybe a good read. I'm looking at scrubbing the basement floor to perk up the house so it sells (damn cat).

Don't worry- be happy.
 
#17 ·
You're looking at some good tunes, maybe eyeing the honeys at the bar, maybe a good read. I'm looking at scrubbing the basement floor to perk up the house so it sells (damn cat).
Actually, tonight the honeys are going to evacuate the bar as the guys watch some game in the USA. I dunno even what sport it is because every time a coach starts talking it's a different sport! I can't even find the state on the US map!
The US is so confusing! #CulturalDifferences.

Have fun polishing. :)
 
#18 ·
No, I use National Hurricane Center which now operates all year. They are intensely interested in anything that can hit the US coast... and most things that do come via the Caribbean. So its an excellent site. Also has the satellite stuff right there.
In this link click on the right side middle "Tropical Weather Discussion" then the 2 links in that page.

National Hurricane Center
 
#21 ·
I am always amazed at the number of people who make passage in unfavorable conditions when by going a couple of days earlier or later the wind would have been such that instead of motorsailing they would have been beam reaching.

I know what I like doing.

Beam reach from the Tobago Cays to Bequia. 7 to 9 knots. Even the cat was OK with it.
 

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#22 ·
Ok I'll be the Devils advocate, I'm not debating waiting for good weather, that only makes sense but I was always amazed at the number of sailors that would sit for days waiting for winds in the 10-12 knot range when they could see the next island and wouldn't even consider leaving in 15-20 knots.
 
#23 ·
I've gone out in worse and I'm certainly not alone in that.

Depends on where you want to go, how badly you want to get there, and what other considerations you may have. Could be you've got dinner reservations at someplace with a six month waiting list.(G)

What's the saying? Ships are safe in harbor, but that's not what they are made for?
 
#31 ·
Came back a week ago from a 10 day charter in the USVI and BVI. The weather forecasts were not reliable at all. Mostly it was variable winds and lots of clouds and only occasional rain. The humidity was unbearable at the end of the charter. So the snorkeling was not so great at times, but we still were in paradise. The worst of it was when the wind shifted more to the SE and we had some really snotty conditions (for a vacation, that is) and modified our itinerary. I'd call 4-5' seas with a short period uncomfortable, even in our 16 ton Island Packet, with the dinghy collecting sea water. We headed to the north side of St. John, which was very protected and not at all crowded. IMHO a lot of the folks who stay in the BVI don't know what they are missing.

I'll say this much for the Island Packet detractors: there were no other sailboats with us in those conditions on the south side of St John. Admittedly, gentlemen and IPs don't sail to weather, but sailing in the Virgins is more about the destinations than sailing, anyway. Nonetheless, we did manage to sail a total of about 80 nm.
 
#32 ·
For weather in the Eastern Carib I find Windguru to be pretty accurate in terms of speed and direction. Less accurate in terms of rainfall.

If the conditions look fluky I will look at the synoptic charts on passage weather to see what is going on.

As for waiting for 12 knots in the winter well it could be a long wait especially if we get a spell of reinforced trades aka 'the Christmas winds'. It often blows 25 to 30 knots for 6 weeks which totally freaks out charters. The rest of us just tuck in an extra reef and hold on through the compression zones at the North ends of the islands. Whoo Hoo!
 
#37 ·
For weather in the Eastern Carib I find Windguru to be pretty accurate in terms of speed and direction. Less accurate in terms of rainfall.

If the conditions look fluky I will look at the synoptic charts on passage weather to see what is going on.

As for waiting for 12 knots in the winter well it could be a long wait especially if we get a spell of reinforced trades aka 'the Christmas winds'. It often blows 25 to 30 knots for 6 weeks which totally freaks out charters. The rest of us just tuck in an extra reef and hold on through the compression zones at the North ends of the islands. Whoo Hoo!
I always wondered who was on the only other boat when I'm out there!
Nice to meet cha I'm Bob.
And the rest of you that only go out on sunny 12kt days, give way I'm probably napping (not kidding if on passage).
 
#33 · (Edited)
This year in the northern Carrib through the Bahamas has been an 'obstreperous' time due to the intense southerlies alternating with frequent 'blue northers'. This year, most times the usual weather routers have had it wrong in many instances probably due to the quite unusually strong El Niño producing a large amount of cold fronts that penetrate much further south than 'usual'.
In the TCI, DR, and southern Bahamas, the locals have stated that this was the worst windy/lousy-winter since most can remember. 'Christmas trades' in the northern Carib. - virtually absent; mostly intervals of intense S or N and nothing else. Very strange. If you waited around for 10-15, this year, you got about 6-8 days of 'sailing' from Jan through March.

Im with you Mark, especially for this year .... no use going out and having your dental fillings loosened when you can sit out a day or two until the weather becomes more 'certain'. This winter in the N. Carib. basin has been especially 'wierd'. Ive seen more 'waterspouts' this year than perhaps all my prior years in 'de island' combined - VERY weird.

Your first post/#1 post pic shows me the possibility of 'roll-clouds' .... Id stay at anchor until it 'clears up'.

:)
 
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